Most maindecked cards by %:
Maindecked Sideboarded % played
Sarkhan Vol 188 9 95.431%
Flameblast Dragon 387 23 94.390%
Ajani Vengeant 206 13 94.064%
Feral Hydra 368 27 93.165%
Resounding Thunder 2164 240 90.017%
Mycoloth 368 41 89.976%
Broodmate Dragon 361 44 89.136%
Caldera Hellion 396 51 88.591%
Jungle Shrine 1089 148 88.036%
Battlegrace Angel 323 49 86.828%
Oblivion Ring 2149 331 86.653%
Savage Lands 2069 367 84.934%
Elspeth, Knight-Errant 169 31 84.500%
Magma Spray 2048 377 84.454%
Sigil of Distinction 338 64 84.080%
Branching Bolt 1985 393 83.474%
Rhox Charger 1063 213 83.307%
Skeletonize 1051 218 82.821%
Hellkite Overlord 165 35 82.500%
Predator Dragon 315 72 81.395%
Win percentage when card is maindecked
Note: If a card is doubled in a maindeck, it counts twice (seeing as that particular card is twice as responsible for a deck's result as any singleton)
MD W MD L %
Where Ancients Tread 35 20 63.636%
Flameblast Dragon 423 276 60.515%
Caldera Hellion 429 282 60.338%
Manaplasm 360 252 58.824%
Spearbreaker Behemoth 371 260 58.796%
Woolly Thoctar 1000 707 58.582%
Broodmate Dragon 376 266 58.567%
Ajani Vengeant 212 153 58.082%
Bull Cerodon 1020 745 57.790%
Qasali Ambusher 744 545 57.719%
Knight-Captain of Eos 298 220 57.529%
Realm Razer 250 185 57.471%
Topan Ascetic 892 663 57.363%
Vithian Stinger 1910 1423 57.306%
Skeletonize 1060 791 57.266%
Wild Nacatl 1544 1165 56.995%
Jungle Shrine 1081 817 56.955%
Cavern Thoctar 1532 1172 56.657%
Sarkhan Vol 183 141 56.481%
Resounding Thunder 2105 1624 56.449%
MD W MD L %
Clarion Ultimatum 0 5 0.000%
Mindlock Orb 1 4 20.000%
Crucible of Fire 1 4 20.000%
Cathartic Adept 20 60 25.000%
Cradle of Vitality 2 6 25.000%
Soul's Grace 24 71 25.263%
Shadowfeed 13 37 26.000%
Banewasp Affliction 11 31 26.190%
Vicious Shadows 4 11 26.667%
Marble Chalice 25 63 28.409%
Filigree Sages 41 91 31.061%
Onyx Goblet 68 146 31.776%
Dragon's Herald 12 25 32.432%
Memory Erosion 12 25 32.432%
Vectis Silencers 65 130 33.333%
Resounding Scream 32 63 33.684%
Behemoth's Herald 19 37 33.929%
Thoughtcutter Agent 39 73 34.821%
Lush Growth 97 181 34.892%
Immortal Coil 6 11 35.294%
Interesting... win percentage when the card sits in the board:
SB W SB L %
Elspeth, Knight-Errant 32 21 60.377%
Battlegrace Angel 56 37 60.215%
Sphinx Sovereign 125 87 58.962%
Prince of Thralls 133 98 57.576%
Esper Panorama 1081 800 57.469%
Master of Etherium 355 267 57.074%
Stoic Angel 192 145 56.973%
Lich's Mirror 151 116 56.554%
Invincible Hymn 379 294 56.315%
Sedris, the Traitor King 99 77 56.250%
Grixis Panorama 929 724 56.201%
Sacellum Godspeaker 301 235 56.157%
Infest 623 488 56.076%
Sharding Sphinx 203 160 55.923%
Knight-Captain of Eos 123 97 55.909%
Angelic Benediction 898 709 55.881%
Grixis Battlemage 886 700 55.864%
Archdemon of Unx 241 191 55.787%
Courier's Capsule 1536 1219 55.753%
Oblivion Ring 325 258 55.746%
Contrast with the worst win percentages when the card sits in the board:
SB W SB L %
Sarkhan Vol 3 7 30.000%
Caldera Hellion 30 45 40.000%
Resounding Thunder 140 207 40.346%
Hellkite Overlord 22 31 41.509%
Bloodpyre Elemental 337 474 41.554%
Skeletonize 133 184 41.956%
Mycoloth 25 34 42.373%
Kresh the Bloodbraided 30 38 44.118%
Predator Dragon 51 63 44.737%
Jungle Shrine 100 121 45.249%
Broodmate Dragon 29 35 45.313%
Branching Bolt 274 328 45.515%
Jund Battlemage 178 212 45.641%
Vithian Stinger 372 442 45.700%
Naya Panorama 335 389 46.271%
Mosstodon 486 556 46.641%
Jungle Weaver 644 726 47.007%
Woolly Thoctar 275 308 47.170%
Magma Spray 285 315 47.500%
Cavern Thoctar 668 736 47.578%
Difference in win percentage between maindecking and sideboarding.
diff
Sarkhan Vol 26.481%
Caldera Hellion 20.338%
Resounding Thunder 16.104%
Skeletonize 15.311%
Bloodpyre Elemental 13.750%
Broodmate Dragon 13.254%
Mycoloth 12.811%
Hellkite Overlord 12.337%
Jungle Shrine 11.706%
Vithian Stinger 11.605%
Woolly Thoctar 11.412%
Kresh the Bloodbraided 11.397%
Where Ancients Tread 10.622%
Manaplasm 10.212%
Predator Dragon 9.494%
Naya Panorama 9.344%
Cavern Thoctar 9.078%
Branching Bolt 8.961%
Mosstodon 8.632%
Jund Panorama 7.911%
diff
Clarion Ultimatum -49.367%
Crucible of Fire -32.922%
Cradle of Vitality -30.102%
Mindlock Orb -29.765%
Soul's Grace -28.195%
Shadowfeed -28.130%
Cathartic Adept -28.075%
Banewasp Affliction -27.956%
Vicious Shadows -27.311%
Marble Chalice -25.236%
Filigree Sages -23.593%
Onyx Goblet -21.913%
Resounding Scream -20.897%
Vectis Silencers -20.285%
Memory Erosion -19.824%
Behemoth's Herald -19.724%
Immortal Coil -19.411%
Thoughtcutter Agent -19.049%
Lush Growth -18.717%
Dragon's Herald -18.069%
Win percentage when card is present in pool.
So I guess you could just figure out how many games you should win as soon as you get the pool :)
Total W Total L %
Flameblast Dragon 445 295 0.601351351
Caldera Hellion 459 327 0.583969466
Ajani Vengeant 225 165 0.576923077
Broodmate Dragon 405 301 0.573654391
Spearbreaker Behemoth 455 339 0.573047859
Knight-Captain of Eos 421 317 0.570460705
Battlegrace Angel 374 283 0.569254186
Manaplasm 430 326 0.568783069
Bull Cerodon 1270 988 0.562444641
Invincible Hymn 384 301 0.560583942
Jungle Shrine 1181 938 0.557338367
Qasali Ambusher 1129 897 0.557255676
Sarkhan Vol 186 148 0.556886228
Woolly Thoctar 1275 1015 0.556768559
Topan Ascetic 1182 948 0.554929577
Sacellum Godspeaker 387 311 0.554441261
Oblivion Ring 2367 1921 0.552005597
Realm Razer 357 290 0.551777434
Puppet Conjurer 1157 943 0.550952381
Resounding Thunder 2245 1831 0.550785083
Watch out for these ones :X
Total W Total L %
Skill Borrower 312 343 0.476335878
Godsire 159 169 0.484756098
Scourglass 306 321 0.488038278
Clarion Ultimatum 312 325 0.489795918
Mindlock Orb 318 324 0.495327103
Sedraxis Specter 336 334 0.501492537
Dragon's Herald 1019 1012 0.501723289
Quietus Spike 321 317 0.503134796
Salvage Titan 336 329 0.505263158
Scavenger Drake 1066 1035 0.507377439
Rafiq of the Many 163 158 0.507788162
Esper Charm 1074 1038 0.508522727
Covenant of Minds 325 314 0.508607199
Archdemon of Unx 350 336 0.510204082
Knight of the White Orchid 318 304 0.511254019
Cloudheath Drake 2002 1912 0.51149719
Mayael the Anima 154 147 0.511627907
Rockcaster Platoon 1041 992 0.512051156
Ridge Rannet 2004 1909 0.512139024
Memory Erosion 371 353 0.512430939
Obviously, take this for what it's worth. The bad cards have bad winning percentages because bad players play those cards. An interesting thing I'd like to compute is the expected win percentage, based on the Limited ratings. So say Resounding Thunder has some win percentage, and based on the ratings of the people who play that card, it's expected to win some percentage of games. If it's higher than expected, then it's that damn good; if it's lower, maybe we need to reconsider our evaluation of that card.
Not quite the same as playtesting or building sealed pools, but it's what I can do :)
4 comments:
Most of the win/loss correlation statistics can likely be explained by the following facts:
1) Almost all of your top cards are really good. At least 3.5s on the Buehler scale.
2) Almost all of your bottom cards are bad - you said this but I'll say it again.
3) Most specifically to the format, almost all of your top cards are Naya. The only card that breaks from this is Broodmate Dragon, which is in a good shard anyway, and splashable if you get the right mana fixing to boot.
So really this just says... Naya is the nuts in ALA sealed and good players play good cards, good cards + skills = win.
I take a break from scientific-based studies to read your blog and I get bombarded with statistical analysis???? haha
Also, when was 'Where Ancients Tread' a good card? To me it seems too narrow to make an impact, though I suppose the people who played the card in their decks had so much fat in them as well that they needed a statin.
I guess I didn't post it, but Where Ancients Tread is maindecked 7.243% of the time it's in the pool.
So most players throw it in the unplayables, but a few saw that it could fit their particular deck.
It's like when I saw Noah Weil doing some practice sealed and was maindecking Etherium Astrolabe. I thought he was just experimenting, but the deck turned out to be nasty and he beat everyone else.
I had a Skill Borrower in my last pool. This explains everything!
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