Getting ready for Portland

I've played a lot of Magic Online last week with Nix Tix and being confined to my apartment thanks to being on-call for work. (I did get paged in the first round of a draft and had to drop it though.) I have tons of replays I can go through and I've already started to note the mistakes I've been making. They range from "ticks", or really dumb mistakes that would make you slap your forehead, like forgetting to fetch or cycle at end step; bonehead mistakes that aren't the same as ticks, per se, but mistakes that just shouldn't happen if you're more aware, like tapping mana incorrectly when you were planning a second play, or walking into a trick you saw, or missing a point of damage, or not seeing a kill on the board; and then there are the high-level planning mistakes that could have altered the game in the long run, like not being aggressive enough in the early game, or playing a less-optimal creature for a particular drop, or playing the wrong removal on a creature.

The point is there are lots of things going wrong. While I cannot pinpoint patterns in them where I could just tell myself to stop doing X and I'll get rid of 90% of my mistakes, I think it's fine to analyze what you could have done differently. Tonight I will probably do a draft, and then go through as many more replays as I can and write down the mistakes and go over them on the trip Friday night to Portland.

I did my first Shards paper draft since Atlanta last night at First Pick at (finally!) managed to 4-0. Since Alara was released I had been running really cold at First Pick. I've done maybe 20 drafts at First Pick and cashed at maybe 4 of these... which, I'm pretty sure, is worse than flipping a coin every match.

Anyway, I drafted a Naya deck that had some pretty good cards like double Wild Nacatl and double Naya Battlmage, but also had some holes, like missing some bears and having to start Incurable Ogre (with nothing for it to activate) and Thorn-Thrash Viashino (without good things to eat).

I've started writing down every card I see again because I was forgetting them on MODO and then not knowing what to sideboard and also walking into them. I've started initialing damage sources on my score pad too, which I started in Atlanta. So WN is damage from Wild Nacatl, VS is Stinger, VD is Viscera Dragger... I also just felt a lot less pressure when I play against the best players. Normally I'm very afraid to make a mistake and I get very nervous, but I don't know if it was just awareness or getting used to playing against good people who are just computer screens to me or just watching better players in Atlanta, but I was way more calm, and I just focused on playing correctly rather than not blowing the game.

It was watching in Atlanta an old friend and former state champion from NC Orrin play that maybe inspired me to be more calm when I play. It was a game in the last rounds of Day 1, and he hardly said a word. I don't think I'm a real talkative player, but if eliminates a chance to get overexcited, why not? Of course, I don't want my plays to be unintentionally ambiguous as far as game state, but it was a little inspiring to see his operations. It's probably an interesting exercise to try to say as little as possible in a match and see if it affects your play and thought process for the better.

But anyway, it certainly felt different tapping the cards than it has all season, but I couldn't be convinced that I was actually outplaying people because so many of my games were blowouts or manascrew wins! I mean, that's the game my deck wanted to play, and I did tick a few times, like forgetting two counters on a Algae Gharial or tapping wrong so I couldn't run out a second guy or even represent a pump, but still... it's hard to objectively say that I went 4-0 and beat good people because I have gotten better. Again, why MODO is such a great tool because you can review the wins and see if you really did play optimally.

Cardboard crack goes digital again

For whatever reason, I decided to download MODO again. It wasn't as slow... but I was only drafting and not a full premier event that would ruin my computer's memory.

So the second draft I did tonight was a 4-3-2-2 ALA draft and I make my way to the finals to play against David, who happens to be a Seattle player, a very good one at that. He has drafted an Esper deck, and I am running Grw Naya. Game 1 I blow him out, and Game 2 he blows me out.

Game 3 my first play is a Court Archers and his is a Tidehollow Strix off of a mulligan I believe. We're beating each other, and he misses land and plays out Obelisks, and I eventually put down a Druid of the Anima and a Cavern Thoctar. He plays out another Obelisk, swings, and after my draw, the board looks like this:

Him: 14 life, 4 cards in hand.
His board: 1 tapped Swamp, 2 tapped Island, untapped Obelisk of Bant, Esper, and Grixis. One tapped Tidehollow Trix.

Me: 11 life, Sigil Blessing, Branching Bolt, Welkin Guide, Resounding Roar in hand
Board: all untapped Court Archers, Druid of the Anima, Cavern Thoctar, 2 Mountain, 2 Forest, 1 Plains.

Tricks I've seen are Grixis Charm, Agony Warp, and Resounding Wave. I know he has another Tidehollow Strix in there and a couple of Sanctum Gargoyles.

I already used a Resounding Thunder on his Scavenger Drake. (Possibly should have been Branching Bolt, because I know he's a tight player, saw Branching Bolt from me, and the only ground guy I did see was a Tidehollow Sculler.) If he has nothing in hand, I've got the game with my two pump spells, but that ain't happening. I've seen Resounding Wave earlier in the game, but I don't see a whole lot of point in alpha striking. So what are all the possible courses of action:

I could attack with everyone. Send in for 7. If I pass priority at this point, if he chooses to bounce/kill Thoctar (I guess Bant Charm is a possibility... otherwise there are no cards in the format that kill it), I could use my two pump spells to whack him for 9. Or I could let him bounce it, he takes 2, and I run out Welkin Guide. Next turn I can attack again with a kill possible, but my board is definitely worse.

If he doesn't do anything, he will take at least 7, which is alright. I run out Welkin Guide second main as another guy.

I could play Resounding Roar on my Court Archers before damage. If he plays Agony Warp on what I pump, and I respond with the Sigil Blessing on it, he will take 12 if he targeted Druid with -3/-0, 13 if he -3/-0's the Archers, or 12 if he targets the Thoctar. So he'd go to 2.

If he bounces the Archers I target with the pump, I let him take 6 and play my Court Archers again, saving my Sigil Blessing.

I could also Welkin Guide the Archers. If he deals with the Druid, he takes 6. If he bounces the Thoctar he takes 4 and goes to 10.

I could attack with the Thoctar and something else. If I leave back the Druid, I can follow similar reasoning as above. If I pass and he bounces the Thoctar, I can run my pumps and whack him for 7, or whack him for 1 and run out the Thoctar. I don't think he will deal with the Archers if I don't do anything. If I Resounding Roar the Archers and he does nothing he takes 10, or he Warps it, and I can Sigil Blessing and he takes 10 (don't think it matters who the targets are), and I can make it 11. If he bounces the Thoctar I run it out again.

If I attack with the Druid instead, it's pretty much the same except I cannot add an additional 1, or if he bounces Thoctar I cannot play it.

What I chose to do is attack with just the Thoctar, and it got bounced with Resounding Wave and I replayed it. This analysis took me probably 15 minutes to write up, so I wasn't able to really figure out that attack with everyone, running out a pump on a smaller guy and having him take 8 from my two pumps if he bounces Thoctar or a lot if he kills my pump target seems better.

How the game runs out is he attacks, plays another Strix, which I decide I need to kill. I attack with just the Thoctar again and it gets Resounding Silenced. Plays a Cloudskate Drake, attacks for 2 again putting me at 7, I draw something irrelevant, then he Esper Charms and draws a Sigil of Distinction, I start chumping, and he draws Sharuum and I scoop them up.

I probably really needed to think it out a little bit more, even if it took a few minutes, since it is MODO. Maybe pencil and paper would have helped? Not sure. Good players can run through that fast. I need to learn to do that.

Grand Prix Atlanta - Day 2 (the PTQ)

Sixty-four players started the day drafting in the Grand Prix, while 240-some started another Sealed deck at the PTQ. I get passed a pool with tons of great Green and White beaters with three Akrasan Squires, 5 or 6 bears, and two Mycoloths, along with two Sigil Blessing. I was short on removal, with only Branching Bolt and the pseudo-removal Excommunicate, but the deck's plan was just to not have to remove things and run over people. I was in love with the deck because it was only playing 2 Red cards. I possibly could have cut an Obelisk of Naya for a Naturalize because I had 2 Mountains, a Jund Panorama, and a Druid of the Anima for my two red cards already... but I really didn't want to mess with the mana.

First two rounds are blowouts, as I wasn't playing against very good players. Round 3 I play Ben Stark, an old pro with a handful of Pro Tour top 8's. I already played him earlier in the weekend in a grinder, where he was late and got a game loss, then got blown out in the second game. This game, I lose the first one as he comes back, game 2 I win on the back of Mycoloth-Mycoloth, and game 3 I have too much pressure and win. He was pretty upset from the double Mycoloth since he told my friend he played the next round, but he was a lot cooler and nicer than I expected those old pros to be in the heat of battle.

I then lose the next two rounds. One round I lose in three because I cannot deal with Battlegrace Angel. The next round I lose to Scourglass and then a recurred Scourglass via Sanctum Gargoyle. I made a goof in that round where I intended to lay an Ethersworn Canonist with a Scourglass on the table, holding Elvish Visionary and Mycoloth in hand for post-Glass, but I looked down at the card I layed and it's Elvish Visionary. Since two turns before I made him burn for 1 when he overtapped his mana, I didn't even bother trying to pick it up.

I then beat Erik, who is a Raleigh player who I think is very good and whom I've never beat in like five sanctioned matches. I get blown out by Naya Charm game 1, get there with Mycoloth Game 2, then blow him out Game 3 when he can't draw his Plains for Naya Charm, which I don't feel remorse for necessarily since he was playing five colors.

I lose to an insane deck next with double Bant Charm, Naya Charm, double Oblivion Ring, and a couple other great tricks, and he just keeps drawing gas. That was one sick deck. I made one bad play where I played a Squire on a board of Ethersworn Canonist and a couple other Exalted guys, attack into a 3/3 or something, and he pays Sigil Blessing, and I'm about to tap my mana, but he notes that I have already played a spell, so I lose my guy. Felt really dumb because that's exactly what my plan was.

I blow out my next opponent, and then I go to three in my final round and lose because I can't deal with Elspeth. This includes an uncharacteristic mull to 5, the mana had been great all day, where I nearly keep any hand with a Plains, Squire, and bears. I possibly threw away Game 1 because I attacked Mycoloth into a Resounding Silence that I didn't consider. I possibly still needed the pressure to deal with Elspeth, but it was more likely a mistake and me not playing tightly at the end of the tournament.

So I went 5-4. If I had gone 6-3 I would have been pretty ecstatic given how my season has been going, but 5-4 is still the best I have done in Shards Sealed.

I gave Zack, a friend at Pitt, and he still asks me why I'm sucking the big one in Shards sealed. Maybe my deck should have been an X-3 or X-2, but I certainly can't complain about my pool, even if it did lack in hard removal. I thought this was the best day of Magic I've played this season, even if the record is relatively mediocre. It felt like while I was sitting down, I was a lot more relaxed than I have been where I put so much pressure on myself to the point where apparently I make really scrub plays.

If I had 0-2 dropped or something, I would be totally pissed, but my play today convinced me that maybe I'm not as bad at Magic as I think I am, and I probably think I'm way worse than I actually am. I think I'll still make the trip to Portland for one more PTQ, hopefully get lucky, but more hopefully to not make mistakes and get a decent enough record just so I can really tell myself that I'm not that bad.

Overall, my weekend was better than I expected. A lot of Raleigh guys that I used to play with came down, some old friends also made the trip, and I made some new friends, as opposed to not knowing anyone and sitting by myself goldfishing every round.

"Hey, Mike Ward, why did that guy just get DQ'd?"
"Language!"

Grand Prix Atlanta - Day 1

So I'm brimming with confidence going into Day 1, after some relatively good play at the Trials the night before. The deck I had had tons of Red and Black removal, and some green creatures and Necrogenesis to make Jund pretty clear, but the only fixing in the entire pool was a Savage Lands and two Obelisk of Esper. The blue I threw out immediately, so I would have to do with Savage Lands, and a 6-6-4 manabase.

Round 1 I beat someone pretty handily. Round 2 I go to three, and keep a dreadful hand of 4 Red burn spells, some Green creature, and two Swamps. I'm on the play, but I really don't want to send it back because I think I flat out win the game if I draw one of 7 red sources. I don't draw a third land even and I get blown out.

From there, wheels came off, although I don't think I played incorrectly. Round 3 I get blown out because I can't get past 4 lands. Round 4 I play against someone I beat in the trials the night before, flood Game 1 after I clear the board, then get manascrewed Game 2. Round 5 I lose to a pretty weak player who tried as hard as he could to get me back into Game 1, which I probably just should have scooped because he got to 39, and then Game 2 I don't play spells again.

It's just so frustrating because I honestly can't figure out what I'm doing wrong. I don't think I could be as aggressive mulliganing with this deck because my mana was so awful, but then should I keep hands like I kept in Round 2? I'll post the deck list eventually.

I'm not totally convinced that this just doesn't happen to better players. I watched Tomaharo Saito keep 4 red removal cards, a Jund Obelisk, a Cavern Thoctar or something, and a SWAMP, on the play, Game 3, and he rips land land and wins it. Like what the hell??? I'm not going to call shenanigans on that, but how do you keep that EVER?! Is that what it really takes?

More mana issues would arise in the draft I signed up for. I drafted a removal-heavy Grixis deck that played pretty well in Round 1, but then in Round 2 I don't draw land and don't draw spells and I lose. Normal land screw this time, but still unbelievable.

It's hard for me to put this one behind me because it's happened all season, and I honestly don't have any ideas how to get better, and I really don't want to just say that it's the format, because obviously some players are still winning more consistently than I am, and I'd like to think there is something I can do to become better.

I need to clear my head somehow for tomorrow's PTQ, start with a clean slate, and just play well. I thought I was playing well today, but I wish I could see an indication. UGHHHHHH why did I miss the one Constructed tournament in what seems like years last weekend?

Grand Prix Atlanta - Day 0

Despite terrible weather and flight delays, I get into Atlanta, checked in, and at the site just in time to jump into the first flight. Turns out there were no less than three big pros in the tournament in Player of the Year frontrunner Shuhei Nakamura, Australian national champion Aaron Nicastri, and the old Deadguy pro Chris Pikula. Just great.

The pool I opened in the first pool was pretty good that I stretched to four colors. I end up losing the first round in two because both games his Hell's Thunder was good for 10 thanks to Court Archers. I didn't think I made any mistakes.

The next pool is maybe not as powerful, but I kept it to three colors: RGW with Obelisk of Jund for my Resounding Thunder. I won the first round against an old pro because he was late and got a Game Loss and then got blown out Game 2.

The second round I played against a Georgia Tech student. I scooped up game 1 after about 40 minutes, and then blow him out game 2 as time expires. The way it works now is we play five turns of Game 3, then check the life totals to determine the winner. So I take out my 3 Rakeclaw Gargantuan and put in Behemoth's Herald, Goblin Mountaineer, Angelsong, Soul's Grace (the one that gains life), and some other card. He has to mulligan to 5 on the play, hopes that I don't have a turn 1 play, but drop a Goblin Mountaineer. After his turn 3, I win because the score is 19-20. Pretty darn funny.

Third round I win in two. Fourth round I get stuck on two with my 6 and get blown out, then blow him out game two. Game three I have to mulligan to 5, but I nearly stabilize and try to do the little things to keep me in the game. With me at 7, he has a Skeletal Kathari, Vithian Stinger, and Court Archers, and I have a Rakeclaw Gargantuan and a Sigiled Paladin. I am at 7, and he attacks. I decide I need to Soul's Fire to not die, so I run it out after his attacks choosing my Rakeclaw to hit his Kathari to make him at least sac a guy. For whatever reason, I did not specify that Exalted was on the stack. I think I thought he was had 8 mana and could cycle Resounding Roar, making my timing irrelevant, but that was not the case. He does have Resounding Roar and I die to lethal damage because I was extremely lazy. I decided not to push it, and talking to L3 judge Tony Mayer, it would be implied that I let the trigger resolve. Probably my one mistake the entire day. Ugh so close to three byes just to be careless and throw it away.

I felt really really good about how I was playing. I was very relaxed, like I didn't want it as badly as I have in the past. I just focused on playing correctly, which is what I was telling people about how I was doing: I felt I was playing correctly. Hopefully I will keep it going tomorrow and make a strong run, because judging by today, the mini-break from Magic is helping me.

Alright, no more jinxing this, time for bed, got a big day tomorrow.

Magic-League limited stats

So in the same vein as the Standard analysis I posted, I cooked up some Perl scripts to analyze the Sealed minis run on Magic-League. For right now, I just looked at the straight up W-L of every deck registered and accumulated records for each card in the format based on whether it was maindecked or not. Here are some preliminary results:

Most maindecked cards by %:

 Maindecked Sideboarded % played
Sarkhan Vol 188 9 95.431%
Flameblast Dragon 387 23 94.390%
Ajani Vengeant 206 13 94.064%
Feral Hydra 368 27 93.165%
Resounding Thunder 2164 240 90.017%
Mycoloth 368 41 89.976%
Broodmate Dragon 361 44 89.136%
Caldera Hellion 396 51 88.591%
Jungle Shrine 1089 148 88.036%
Battlegrace Angel 323 49 86.828%
Oblivion Ring 2149 331 86.653%
Savage Lands 2069 367 84.934%
Elspeth, Knight-Errant 169 31 84.500%
Magma Spray 2048 377 84.454%
Sigil of Distinction 338 64 84.080%
Branching Bolt 1985 393 83.474%
Rhox Charger 1063 213 83.307%
Skeletonize 1051 218 82.821%
Hellkite Overlord 165 35 82.500%
Predator Dragon 315 72 81.395%

Win percentage when card is maindecked
Note: If a card is doubled in a maindeck, it counts twice (seeing as that particular card is twice as responsible for a deck's result as any singleton)

 MD W MD L %
Where Ancients Tread 35 20 63.636%
Flameblast Dragon 423 276 60.515%
Caldera Hellion 429 282 60.338%
Manaplasm 360 252 58.824%
Spearbreaker Behemoth 371 260 58.796%
Woolly Thoctar 1000 707 58.582%
Broodmate Dragon 376 266 58.567%
Ajani Vengeant 212 153 58.082%
Bull Cerodon 1020 745 57.790%
Qasali Ambusher 744 545 57.719%
Knight-Captain of Eos 298 220 57.529%
Realm Razer 250 185 57.471%
Topan Ascetic 892 663 57.363%
Vithian Stinger 1910 1423 57.306%
Skeletonize 1060 791 57.266%
Wild Nacatl 1544 1165 56.995%
Jungle Shrine 1081 817 56.955%
Cavern Thoctar 1532 1172 56.657%
Sarkhan Vol 183 141 56.481%
Resounding Thunder 2105 1624 56.449%

 MD W MD L %
Clarion Ultimatum 0 5 0.000%
Mindlock Orb 1 4 20.000%
Crucible of Fire 1 4 20.000%
Cathartic Adept 20 60 25.000%
Cradle of Vitality 2 6 25.000%
Soul's Grace 24 71 25.263%
Shadowfeed 13 37 26.000%
Banewasp Affliction 11 31 26.190%
Vicious Shadows 4 11 26.667%
Marble Chalice 25 63 28.409%
Filigree Sages 41 91 31.061%
Onyx Goblet 68 146 31.776%
Dragon's Herald 12 25 32.432%
Memory Erosion 12 25 32.432%
Vectis Silencers 65 130 33.333%
Resounding Scream 32 63 33.684%
Behemoth's Herald 19 37 33.929%
Thoughtcutter Agent 39 73 34.821%
Lush Growth 97 181 34.892%
Immortal Coil 6 11 35.294%

Interesting... win percentage when the card sits in the board:

 SB W SB L %
Elspeth, Knight-Errant 32 21 60.377%
Battlegrace Angel 56 37 60.215%
Sphinx Sovereign 125 87 58.962%
Prince of Thralls 133 98 57.576%
Esper Panorama 1081 800 57.469%
Master of Etherium 355 267 57.074%
Stoic Angel 192 145 56.973%
Lich's Mirror 151 116 56.554%
Invincible Hymn 379 294 56.315%
Sedris, the Traitor King 99 77 56.250%
Grixis Panorama 929 724 56.201%
Sacellum Godspeaker 301 235 56.157%
Infest 623 488 56.076%
Sharding Sphinx 203 160 55.923%
Knight-Captain of Eos 123 97 55.909%
Angelic Benediction 898 709 55.881%
Grixis Battlemage 886 700 55.864%
Archdemon of Unx 241 191 55.787%
Courier's Capsule 1536 1219 55.753%
Oblivion Ring 325 258 55.746%

Contrast with the worst win percentages when the card sits in the board:

 SB W SB L %
Sarkhan Vol 3 7 30.000%
Caldera Hellion 30 45 40.000%
Resounding Thunder 140 207 40.346%
Hellkite Overlord 22 31 41.509%
Bloodpyre Elemental 337 474 41.554%
Skeletonize 133 184 41.956%
Mycoloth 25 34 42.373%
Kresh the Bloodbraided 30 38 44.118%
Predator Dragon 51 63 44.737%
Jungle Shrine 100 121 45.249%
Broodmate Dragon 29 35 45.313%
Branching Bolt 274 328 45.515%
Jund Battlemage 178 212 45.641%
Vithian Stinger 372 442 45.700%
Naya Panorama 335 389 46.271%
Mosstodon 486 556 46.641%
Jungle Weaver 644 726 47.007%
Woolly Thoctar 275 308 47.170%
Magma Spray 285 315 47.500%
Cavern Thoctar 668 736 47.578%

Difference in win percentage between maindecking and sideboarding.

 diff
Sarkhan Vol 26.481%
Caldera Hellion 20.338%
Resounding Thunder 16.104%
Skeletonize 15.311%
Bloodpyre Elemental 13.750%
Broodmate Dragon 13.254%
Mycoloth 12.811%
Hellkite Overlord 12.337%
Jungle Shrine 11.706%
Vithian Stinger 11.605%
Woolly Thoctar 11.412%
Kresh the Bloodbraided 11.397%
Where Ancients Tread 10.622%
Manaplasm 10.212%
Predator Dragon 9.494%
Naya Panorama 9.344%
Cavern Thoctar 9.078%
Branching Bolt 8.961%
Mosstodon 8.632%
Jund Panorama 7.911%

 diff
Clarion Ultimatum -49.367%
Crucible of Fire -32.922%
Cradle of Vitality -30.102%
Mindlock Orb -29.765%
Soul's Grace -28.195%
Shadowfeed -28.130%
Cathartic Adept -28.075%
Banewasp Affliction -27.956%
Vicious Shadows -27.311%
Marble Chalice -25.236%
Filigree Sages -23.593%
Onyx Goblet -21.913%
Resounding Scream -20.897%
Vectis Silencers -20.285%
Memory Erosion -19.824%
Behemoth's Herald -19.724%
Immortal Coil -19.411%
Thoughtcutter Agent -19.049%
Lush Growth -18.717%
Dragon's Herald -18.069%

Win percentage when card is present in pool.
So I guess you could just figure out how many games you should win as soon as you get the pool :)

 Total W Total L %
Flameblast Dragon 445 295 0.601351351
Caldera Hellion 459 327 0.583969466
Ajani Vengeant 225 165 0.576923077
Broodmate Dragon 405 301 0.573654391
Spearbreaker Behemoth 455 339 0.573047859
Knight-Captain of Eos 421 317 0.570460705
Battlegrace Angel 374 283 0.569254186
Manaplasm 430 326 0.568783069
Bull Cerodon 1270 988 0.562444641
Invincible Hymn 384 301 0.560583942
Jungle Shrine 1181 938 0.557338367
Qasali Ambusher 1129 897 0.557255676
Sarkhan Vol 186 148 0.556886228
Woolly Thoctar 1275 1015 0.556768559
Topan Ascetic 1182 948 0.554929577
Sacellum Godspeaker 387 311 0.554441261
Oblivion Ring 2367 1921 0.552005597
Realm Razer 357 290 0.551777434
Puppet Conjurer 1157 943 0.550952381
Resounding Thunder 2245 1831 0.550785083

Watch out for these ones :X

 Total W Total L %
Skill Borrower 312 343 0.476335878
Godsire 159 169 0.484756098
Scourglass 306 321 0.488038278
Clarion Ultimatum 312 325 0.489795918
Mindlock Orb 318 324 0.495327103
Sedraxis Specter 336 334 0.501492537
Dragon's Herald 1019 1012 0.501723289
Quietus Spike 321 317 0.503134796
Salvage Titan 336 329 0.505263158
Scavenger Drake 1066 1035 0.507377439
Rafiq of the Many 163 158 0.507788162
Esper Charm 1074 1038 0.508522727
Covenant of Minds 325 314 0.508607199
Archdemon of Unx 350 336 0.510204082
Knight of the White Orchid 318 304 0.511254019
Cloudheath Drake 2002 1912 0.51149719
Mayael the Anima 154 147 0.511627907
Rockcaster Platoon 1041 992 0.512051156
Ridge Rannet 2004 1909 0.512139024
Memory Erosion 371 353 0.512430939

Obviously, take this for what it's worth. The bad cards have bad winning percentages because bad players play those cards. An interesting thing I'd like to compute is the expected win percentage, based on the Limited ratings. So say Resounding Thunder has some win percentage, and based on the ratings of the people who play that card, it's expected to win some percentage of games. If it's higher than expected, then it's that damn good; if it's lower, maybe we need to reconsider our evaluation of that card.

Not quite the same as playtesting or building sealed pools, but it's what I can do :)

Incremental Growth goes to the Grand Prix

While me having to be in North Carolina for the week is a very very unfortunate and unpleasant circumstance, it does give me the opportunity to make a stop this weekend at Atlanta for the Grand Prix. Personally, I need something like this to get my mind off of such heavy matters so that I can resume normal life upon returning to Seattle.

But preparation? I pretty much stay up all night at the hospital with my work laptop, which rules out Magic Workstation, and then sleep all day. I have zero product with me, as I wasn't worried a whole lot about Magic cards when I made the trip, so when I arrive on Friday for the Trials, I will have not played Magic for the entire week.

But I wonder if that will have a positive or negative affect on my game? I've taken two relatively long breaks from Magic from doing drum corps for the entire summer, and both times I have come back pretty rusty at my game and lacking focus, and I would need a few weeks or an entirely new format to get back into it.

But I've been doing three paper Shards drafts a week since it come out, certainly more if you consider side drafts at PTQs and the couple draft-all-days. I'd like to say that I have a general grasp on card evaluations and what synergies and combos are available, yet I'm still making on-board mistakes and such. A semi-fresh look at the format will hopefully open my to things I'm not seeing and free me from some shortcuts and mental blocks that have been negatively affecting my game.

Alright, hopefully I'll find some things on the Interweb to write about before the Grand Prix.

The Cool Kids Club

I drafted today in Redmond and went 4-0 with a pretty good RGB deck that I thought was pretty bad because I had to play a 5-5-5 manabase with a Jund Panorama, Grixis Panorama, and a Obelisk of Jund. Thought for sure I would lose a match to color screw, but I managed to get lucky a couple times on two land hands, and I did elect to draw whenever given the choice. It also helped that I had 2 Sprouting Thranax and 2 Jund Charms.

In Round 2 I play against a newer player who comes with his young son every week. He has a pretty good Bant deck with double Rhox War Monk and double Oblivion Ring. Game 1 I get blown out pretty badly when he runs out both his Oblivion Rings on my fat and I can't deal with his Rockcaster Platoon, but he likes to talk out all of his plays and his thinking and asks for a lot of clarifications which really really slows the play down, and spends time kidding around with some plays and mannerisms. Game 2 I win past a Rhox War Monk, but again takes a very long time with the same talking through plays and clarifying. I set up an attack where he's at 7 and tapped out and facing lethal damage no matter how he blocks.

Him: "Okay." Just kind of sits there.
Me: "... go to game 3?"
Him: "Well wait, can I stall it out and try to get a draw?"
Me: "That wouldn't be cool."

In game 3, he keeps kidding around (to him, all in good nature) about his comment and how it isn't "cool", so I'm getting pretty upset, but I keep concentrating on the game because I want it to finish. After the TO Jeff walks by and explains that stalling is a serious offense (cheating, in fact, according to the Penalty Guidelines) and he makes another comment about "not being cool" and making fun of it all, I flat out tell him as calmly as I can "Look, it wasn't funny" and he gets the picture that I was upset from the course of events. The match goes to extra turns and thanks to a good draw I am able to win on the fifth and final turn. I was pretty upset it came to that because of his pace of play, obviously not maliciously trying to take advantage and only trying to understand what was going on, but in no way fast enough to finish three games in 50 minutes, and especially since I've tried really hard to speed up my play and stop getting unintentional draws. He did apologize for making too much fun out of it all, presumably after talking more with Jeff about what was happening.

I know exactly why he plays the way he does and thinks out loud basic situations and tries to clarify everything he can: because he is a new player and wants to get better. Fair enough. If this were at a PTQ and in the winner's bracket, I would absolutely call a judge over for stalling. But this was a regular weekend draft, and I know for a fact there was no malicious intent behind this, and I do care about not being a prick to the people I play with every week. That being said, since prizes are determined by record and not place, a draw would have affected what I get, which might have been 2 packs or something seemingly insignificant which is half a draft in credit, but imagine this scenario.

Me: (takes a $6.50 bill from you and rips it up) "Oh, it's just money, you have enough of it and you'll get more next week, lighten up!"

Yeah, it's not a lot of money, but I don't think too many of you wouldn't at least give a "What the f!@$", if not physically hurt me.

More importantly, I expect, and I think all of us expect, a certain level of seriousness and focus when you play in a sanctioned event. It really sounds silly on the outside looking in because it's just Magic cards, but there are other avenues to enjoy the game that don't take as much time and money if the experience of tournament Magic didn't matter to me. I'm more than happy to play anyone who wants to play between rounds of a draft and give advice, but inside an actual match is a little inappropriate, especially when it bogs down the game as much as it did in this case. I'm strongly of the opinion that matches in Limited go to time because people are either not being aggressive enough or they are playing too slow.

So that's off my chest. The rest of the draft was uneventful. Round 1 I played against a regular who's pretty good in 3, but threw away game 2 when I misexecuted a plan I had just from carelessness. Round 3 I blew out a regular, and Round 4 I beat a relatively new tournament player.

A little more States testing coming this week, mostly checking out sideboarding strategies and finding cards to borrow. I like the Red deck because it has edges against Faeries and Five-Color Control, but it scoops it hard to Kithkin. I tried Kithkin and it's good against Faeries, tears up the red deck, but literally cannot beat Five-Color, so I'm considering both decks.

Frustration in Drafting with Shards of Alara

(That title is for Google, because apparently a lot of people end up here trying to figure out how to draft Shards of Alara. Lol.)

Anyway, drafting this set has been pretty frustrating for me. I think I generally know how to draft it decently, know what cards are powerful and how certain archetypes are supposed to go. I'm still making tons of play mistakes, which is my own damn fault. But man, am I getting manascrewed a bunch! And so are my opponents! It is the least fun way to win at Magic, because no one likes not casting their spells, and I certainly can't assert that I played better than an opponent that did not cast their spells either.

My drafting strategy has been to take any first pickable cards, but otherwise take tri-lands and panoramas as they come around (even regardless of color). One draft I took 5 lands in the first pack because I really really wanted to fix my mana. Yet I still get mana-screwed a whole bunch. What the hell is going on?

The thing with Panoramas is that they are actually pretty bad when your two-drops are multi-colored. If I have a whole bunch of RG haste guys and Steward of Valerons, I really don't want to be playing 4-5 Panoramas, which is why I don't value those creatures as highly as others.

Also, which has been said by numerous writers, when figuring out mana sources, you shouldn't count, say, Naya Panorama as a White, Red, and Green source because it's never both: it's a white, red, OR green source. But then how do you figure out splashing? If I'm splashing, say, White in my RGB deck for say.... Oblivion Ring, Naya Charm, and Bull Ceradon (Naya Charm maybe a stretch, but the other two I think are acceptable splashes, tell me if I'm horribly wrong.) and I've got say... two Naya Panoramas, and let's say I'm equal parts Black, Red, and Green for the most part. Do I play one Plains because I've now got three ways to get White, or do I need to play 2 or more because I will probably be needing those Panoramas to get my main colors? Similarly, if I've got 3 or 4 Panoramas and I want to play three colors plus a splash, what are my options? Could go 1-4-4-4? 1-5-4-3? 2-3-4-4?

Maybe I value the Panoramas too highly, and there is an upper bound on the number you can play if you want to cast your early drops and your gold cards in the early game. Maybe I just need to be stricter with my colors when I draft and never "need" the Panoramas.

As for Constructed, I think I'm now leaning toward Five-Color Control, because I actually need a lot of cards for the Red Deck. But Red has favorable matchups against Five-Color and Faeries, so I'll keep thinking about it and still be ready to throw down some cash to build that deck. At first I thought Manabarbs would be really sick to play against Five-Color, but I'm afraid Runed Halo (which is coming from the Board anyway to fight Demigod) will make it very very bad, especially if they can Wrath and stabilize and actually put you on a clock. I also think I want to try Jund Charm in the Red Deck, because of the obvious instant-speed Pyroclasm, but also pumping your guys and dealing with Mannequin, Reveillark, Persist and Unearth guys.

I've been wanting to make some changes to the Five-Color list I've been playing. Bant Charm has been okay for me, but it seems Condemn is almost strictly better than it. The only artifact I think I care about is Loxodon Warhammer, but I can just kill creatures (which Condemn does), and paying 3 to counter a Cryptic Command (or worse, Negate) isn't terribly exciting. Esper Charm is fine as card draw and pretty good as discard, and it gives me an edge against Faeries. Jund Charm is surprisingly versitile, because it gives me another go with a Kitchen Finks, and it can stop Demigod recursions. That card is definitely staying in. I want to throw in Nucklavee (I guess just 1) and some mix of Remove Soul and Negate. Probably more Remove Soul because I want things to fight early aggro (Stigma Lasher really hurts me!) and maybe 1 or 2 Negates. I kind of just want to run Chris Woltereck's winning 5-Color deck, but it doesn't run Mannequin and I really like Mannequin, especially on Empyrial Archangel. Oh, and Resounding Thunder is HOT, definitely throwing 4 in the sideboard!

Seattle PTQ

So I scrubbed out of another PTQ yesterday. I thought my pool was okay, I was RGW splash Blue for Stoic Angel. I left Vein Drinker in the board because there were too few playable Black creatures. I of course misregister my deck and leave out a Rakeclaw Gargantuan, which I realize in Game 2 of the 1st round. What happened was I layed out RGW in the beginning, really liked it, and then started laying out the other decks. With around 8 minutes to go I lay out RGW and start registering. I knew something was weird because I was short a playable, so I threw in something terrible like Incurable Ogre. (I need to join the "Incurable Ogre sucks" bandwagon really soon.) Ughhhh...

Round 1 I throw away Game 1 by Time Walking myself via an onboard Vithian Stinger against an aggressive start. Round 2 I lose to a pretty tight player and I don't think there was a lot I could do. 0-2, but I'm going to ride it out.

Round 3 I blow someone out. Round 4 I lose in three, both times to Flameblast Dragon, but in Game 3 he needed help from Spearbreaker Behemoth. I really love Sealed deck...

I still decide to stay in because I want to keep playing with the pool. My opponent doesn't show up Round 5, but it becomes a bye so I don't even get rating points. Round 6 I blow someone out who got flooded. Round 7 I beat a newer player. Round 8 I pretty much get blown out. 4-4, but I still got a draft set out of it for 60th out of 196.

I have no idea what to do to make myself stop playing awfully. I wish I could play Limited as much as I can playtest for a Constructed format, because I don't make nearly as many mistakes in Constructed as I do in Limited. This three weeks will be glorious, getting to test out a new Constructed format.

My thoughts right now on Standard are
- I hate the 5-Color mirror.
- I hate Kithkin because it cannot win against 5-Color.
- I (right now) hate my Bant deck because it cannot beat Kithkin.
I think I can tune up my Bant deck to have a little better game, because even if the matchup is terrible, it won't make up a huge part of the metagame. It played surprising well with "fair" decks like Doran. I've also ran the mono-Red deck a couple times on Magic-League and kind of like how that plays out.

Current thoughts on Standard

I've started playing a little more Magic Workstation this weekend, just trying to get a feel for the format and where my Bant deck stands. I played a couple of games against Five Color Control and I thought the deck was okay against it. If I get a T2 Finks or War Monk (preferably War Monk because he trumps their Finks), I can sit on my own counters as they try to deal with it. Treetops in the mid to late game are great too because they are Wrath resistant. I just have to avoid getting Cruel Ultimatum'd because I cannot recover from that huge card disadvantage because they're bound to find an answer to my Treetop Villages.

I played a couple games against Kithkin. The deck has huge problems against the swarm, and the worst card for me is Spectral Procession. The other day I ran a 10-game set of this matchup in solo mode plus a paper deck in front of my computer and it was 7-3 in favor of the White deck. Stillmoon Cavalier is a beating for my deck that I cannot deal with besides Colossus, and Stoic Angel was okay sometimes.. Stillmoon can still jump in front of her. The matches were dreadful enough that I almost want to dump the deck.

The more I look at the Five-Color list that I'm running, the more I want to run it. I also like the idea of a Doran update with Tidehollow Scullers and Thoughtseizes in the main, and with some other splash, probably Blue. I could just run Kithkin, since I'd prefer playing 8 rounds with a beatdown deck than a thinking deck, but I don't know how much tuning that deck can do to beat Five-Color. Maybe I'll try Marsh Usary's Chatoic Backlash list.

Drafting

I went to draft tonight at First Pick. My first pick was a Sanctum Gargoyle over a Naya Charm and a Deft Duelist. I got passed a Deft Duelist (not sure if he's a high pick... I sure do like him and they didn't seem to come around really late), then an Agony Warp, so I was going to bias toward WUB.

The deck I thought ended up okay.... I got greedy again in the beginning of the second pack and picked a Rhox War Monk and Sigil Blessing hoping for a splash, but not doing so in the end... the packs were relatively weak in my opinion, but there were options that I thought I could get later. Guess not, next time I draft I should try sticking to my guns for once no matter what gets passed in the second pack.

Here was my deck:
1 Akrasan Squire
2 Tidehollow Strix
1 Sighted-Caste Sorcerer
1 Deft Duelist
1 Knight of the Skyward Eye
1 Blister Beetle
1 Fleshbag Marauder
1 Esper Battlemage
1 Kathari Screecher
1 Fatesticher
1 Ranger of Eos
1 Sanctum Gargoyle
1 Skeletal Kathari
1 Corpse Connoisseur
1 Steelclad Serpent
1 Kederekt Leviathan

1 Courier's Capsule
1 Esper Charm
1 Resounding Wave
1 Resounding Silence

1 Bant Panorama
1 Arcane Sanctum
6 Island
4 Plains
4 Swamp
1 Forest

Not making the cut:
Welkin Guide
Windwright Mage
Rhox War Monk
Sigil Blessing
Obelisk of Esper
Angelsong

Won't go into a whole lot of detail about the matches, because I either got blown out, mulliganed a lot, or they got mana screwed. But here are some highlights:

In Round 1 against Charles D. I made a swing with a Sanctum Gargoyle and an Esper Battlemage, knowing he probably has Branching Bolt, so I was going to save the Gargoyle with a bounce spell and get pack Strix... but he plays out a second Branching Bolt in response. Frown town :(

That same match I couldn't deal with a Algae Garial, I thought my only way to deal with it would be my big Upheaval guy or the Fleshbag Marauder. So I started trying to swing with my Deft Duelist... when he turns out to be an excellent way of holding him down. His deck was amazing though and I think he won the draft.

My last round I had only a Deft Duelist out and some pretty crummy cards in hand so I held him back when he had a clear board but a forest and a Naya Panorama. Ambusher's an uncommon, but I could have passed it to him in the draft (he was 2 to my right), and the game is over if he hits the board and sticks. I 2-2 dropped after that.

Maybe my deck was underwhelming, maybe I really was just getting mana screwed, because I mulliganed a lot. (I don't know how many times that freaking Forest was in my opening grip.) Not sure... I could have stood to play better in the first round, but the fourth round I mulliganed both games and were absolute blow outs. Le sigh... I'll debate my card selection later today.

Redemption?

I get to Games and Gizmos and play a few games with Gurney's Extended decks he's trying out for Berlin. We split 1-1 with me playing Faeries and him playing Bubble Hulk. He beat me with Tron and me with Faeries and I was about to win the next game but it was time for deck construction. To me, Faeries plays really well in Extended, especially T1 Bitterblossom and sitting on Spellstutter Sprites. Too bad that deck is a little more expensive than I'd want to dish out for a deck, although conceivably I could build it for Standard and then have my Extended deck ready...

Games and Gizmos was not doing the Shard restriction, which was great because I didn't enough great cards in one chard. I played base GWU with the most exciting cards being 2 Rhox War Monks. I decided to splash Red for Branching Bolt, Resounding Thunder, Soul's Fire, Skeletonize, and Rakeclaw Gargantuan, instead of Black for Tower Gargoyle, Agony Warp, the 2/1 Deathtouch Flier, and a couple of Executioner's Capsules. I think the red is more powerful, but if I really wanted to I could board into Black if the burn alone won't do it. My bomb was a foil Sigil of Distinction, and I opened 2 Master of Etheriums.

Rounds 1 and 2 are pretty much byes. Round 3 wasn't really that close, my deck played out pretty well. There was one mistake that could have let me win one turn earlier because I forgot I would get an extra point from Exalted, so I didn't tap my last guy to Topic Ascetic to put him to 3 for the Resounding Thunder I was holding in my hand. Round 2 is a blow out with a T3 Woolly Thoctar of his meeting my T4 Rhox War Monk followed up with a Sigil of Distinction and going all the way.

Round 4 I play against a deck with great rares that took down Gurney. Basically I can't really deal with Broodmate Dragon. Maybe should have chumped his Cavern Thoctar when he and another guy took me down form 16-6. I also think there was another misplay where I didn't think I had mana for a cycled Resounding Roar, but would have liked to do another 6 to put pressure and to draw a card. Don't really remember. Game 2 I board in Cancel because of his bombs and I know he has a Hellkite Overlord. I tap out to play a fatty to match his fatty with Cancel in hand he plays Broodmate Dragon and he goes all the way again. I did get to Cancel a Vein Drinker. Wow, three absolutely busted rares in one pool...

Round 5 I play Noah and he has a hiccup in mana Game 1 after I take a couple of Woolly Thoctar beats and once I Oblivion Ring that guy he can't catch up to my board position. Game 2 he really gets mana screwed and I blow him out.

4-1 gets me 18 packs (this store is insane with prize support!) which I use to never pay for another draft at this store for at least the next month. I started keeping track of my mulligans and I felt like I have to keep hands that give me all my colors, even if it might be a 2 or a 1 spell hand, because it can't get a whole lot better with one less card. I did get lucky more than a couple times on topdecking a color so I could play a 2 drop, but I'm not really going to play.

So all in all, pretty uneventful day. More familiarity with the cards is great.

I'm trying to see if I can get a ride to Vancouver this weekend for the PTQ. Hopefully this will turn my Magic brain on to actually start playing great. I've been playing like shit, and I don't know how to draft yet, but the pressure will hopefully trigger a hidden superhuman ability to play really tight Magic.

Draft all day, or a Draft disaster

Yesterday, after dropping off my Washington voter registration form in the mail (which I am told is useless because Washington is always overwhelmingly Democrat, regardless of who I vote for), I went to First Pick for their release event, which was 8-man drafts all day and a Sealed event.

I jumped into a draft and can't get away from GWU again. Round 1 I play Jesse. Game 1 is a blowout. Game 2 is close but with a Tar Fiend that wipes my hand (but me topdecking Excommunicate), and almost stabilizing but getting wrecked by Violent Ultimatum, I lose.

Game 3 I get a really fast start but I tap out with 3 guys on the board on my turn 4 to fetch a land and he Jund Charms my board. I didn't see Jund Charm Games 1 or 2 (and I saw a LOT of cards in those games), so I don't think it was unreasonable for me not to play around it. I lose. I don't think I made any mistakes that stick out in my mind.

Then I jump into a Sealed Deck that wasn't running the Shard restriction. Round 1 I play Joey and every game is a blow out and I win in 3. Round 2 I play BJ, Joey's father. Game 1 is close but he makes some mistakes and I win. Game 2 I don't remember much but I mulligan to 6 and he gets there. Game 3 was a blowout. The third and final round wasn't exciting, and I won.

I jump in another draft and draft WUB with 3 Sanctum Gargoyles, a Tower Gargoyle, and a couple of Etherium Sculptors. Round 1 I play against a weaker opponent and roll. Round 2 I play Jason and he blows me out with his bombs Prince of Thralls and Vein Drinker. His deck was just way too powerful and my deck too "fair" it seems.

I jump in one last draft and draft WUB again. I play Zaiem, one of a few people I kinda sorda knew when I arrived in Seattle, and while he hasn't played a lot of paper because he works in BFE (Tacoma), he's been very welcoming. Round 1 is very tight. I draw Agony Warp and make an attack planning to 2-for-1 toward the end game, but he has his own Agony Warp and 2-for-1's me instead. He said he didn't think that my attack and plan with Agony Warp was a mistake. Round 2 I blow him out, and Round 3 was another tight game, and toward the end game I have a Sanctum Gargoyle and he has a 1/1 3G Shroud guy that gets bigger when things hit the bin. He plays the 2B 3/1 Innocent Blood guy (which is amazing), and with 4 mana up, I Call to Heel my guy, but don't even consider agony Warping his 3/1 so that he has to sac his Shroud guy! That's just me not looking over all the cards in my hand and looking for all possible plays, similar to the Mercy Killing play I miss when a weaker player pumped to kill a fatty. I have no other way of dealing with that guy other than blocking, and he ends up going all the way.

Apart from learning how to draft this format, I need to get way more creative with my plays and find the amazing plays that steal wins against equal or better opponents. Beating the players I expect to beat will get me to .500 at a PTQ. I think I just need to play a lot more with the cards. Ugh, what a frustrating day.

I'm writing this on the way to Redmond for their release event. I initially was going to skip it since they were going to have the deck building restrictions, but I just need to play more... plus I want a little redemption by playing a weaker field. Need a little bit of confidence right now.

Sealed Deck Generator

I have wrirten a first draft of a Sealed Deck Generator, since I missed the bus from work and didn't go to First Pick yesterday. Go here:

http://www.danielcduterte.net/sealed_generator.php

For now, the most you can do with this is Copy/Paste a pool into Notepad, save it, and open it in MWS as an Apprentice deck, then edit your pool as you normally would have in MWS, but tonight I'll make it more usable from the web. Enjoy!

Another prerelease

I went to Redmond at Games and Gizmos to play in another prerelease. I got there at 11, with the event scheduled to start at 2, and I was like 25th out of the 32 maximum for the store. As an aside, I think Wizards should go back to sponsoring big prereleases, they're way more fun and you don't have to sorry people who show up at the scheduled time because too many people come to the stores, and they really screw the premier tournament organizers that run their PTQ's for them.

I built a straight GWU Bant deck with Empyrial Archangel as my bomb. The way I think to build a sealed deck is to maximize the bombs while still having some amount of removal and good support creatures, because just a solid deck will probably X-2 a PTQ, losing to people with more bombs or better bombs.

Round 1 and 2 are pretty uneventful. Round 3 I play Jason, who's helped me get into the Seattle Magic community since I've gotten here and is very good. He plays really fast, and I again got into the trap of keeping up. Game 1 I kept a pretty crummy hand and play a lot of land and ramp and no spells. Game 2 I blow him out, and Game 3 he mulligans to 5 and I play more spells than he does. I made one mistake in the beginning of the game where I had a Steward of Valereon and a Kathari Screecher against his Naya Battlemage and a Forest and Plains, which means Qasali Ambusher. I had a Sigil Blessing in hand but I didn't really want to attack with both guys and have it only take out whoever would block the 2/2 Vigilance guy, so I attack with just the flier. He blocks with the Ambusher...

"Excuse me?"
"Block with the Ambusher."

I read it, and it has Reach. At that point I go ahead and drop my pump guy 'cause I can't lose that tempo, but I should have just attacked with both guys, and he'd potentially double block and I 2 for 1 him, or he blocks as he did and I get another 3 damage in. I honestly didn't know he had reach, but hey it's the prerelease, but hey I had the same card in my deck, I should know what my cards do. I'm pretty sure I make some questionable attacks/acts of cowardice (the new Magic term is apparently being a coward, or not attacking with guys when you should) in trying to play fast, and I need to get myself to slow down and not care that I'm not keeping up pace! Ugh!

Round 4 I lose on a mulligan to 4, keeping a no land hand on the draw but that had Elvish Visionary to get me there should I draw a Forest and another land off the top. Game 2 is close, but with the score 12-8 in my favor, with a Sanctum Gargoyle and a Waveshimmer Aven on the board and him with a lot of White, Green, and Blue mana open and his own army (but me holding an Angelsong), I fly over the top... and get Resounding Silenced. REALLY dumb of me not to consider the card at all, and I get blown out from there. That's just me not playing tight at a very low-level.

Round 5 I play against a kid who had the 4/4 Dragon that makes another 4/4 flying buddy, the 4/4 devouring haste dragon, and Hellkite Overlord in one sealed pool. Game 1 I pretty much get blown out. Game 2 he plays out all three of his bombs, and I get him down to 2 but still get blown out. I made a bad block when he attacked with a 4/4 token and I double block with a 2/2 and 2/3 flier, but completely walk into the Exalted trigger and lose both my guys. In Game 2 I also threw a flier in front of a Hellkite Overlord with my Angel on my side thinking I could keep the Angel another turn but forgot about the Firebreathing ability. Irrelevant in the end because he had 3 dragons on the board... but there were definitely reasons to not call it an injustice.

Wednesday, since a lot of people have at least a draft set, First Pick will probably be doing a bring your own Shards draft, then Friday is likely the first Shards of Alara FNM, and Saturday is all-day drafting. One thing I need to start doing that I see Jason, Gurney, and a lot of other good players do is play games for fun, because A) Magic is fun, and B) Magic is more fun when you learn the bad plays that you're making against your friends when nothing is on the line.

As for the time in between, I have 3 Sealed Deck pools in my possession, so I'll be tearing those apart and figuring out different ways to build them and seeing what's good and what's terrible. Less than three weeks now...

Two Sealed Deck flights

I'll post my pools during the week, because I don't really want to write about how to build my decks right now, but about my play. I'll probably post my decks in the middle of the week, since I probably won't be SSE'ing one more time on Wednesday before the official release date.

In my first flight that morning, I had a decent BRGw deck with a lot of burn and some spot removal too. Round 1 Game 1 I get blown out, Game 2 I blow him out, and then Game 3 I mulligan to 5 and get blown out. Round 2 I played against a newer player and won. Round 3, Game 1 he has a pretty good deck and I can't remove his black guys with my Executioner's Capsule, and Game 2 he blows me out and there's not a whole lot I can do about that. I drop at 1-2.

In my second flight, I have a way better deck, RGWu with some pretty dirty bombs. Round 1 I play against someone who was not very good. Round 2 I play some pretty good Magic. Before I sit down, I pile and have 39 cards and can't find where I dropped the other card or what it was, so I throw my last cut into a sleeve. Game 1 was pretty much a blow out because he goes to town with a Deft Duelist and a couple of Exalted guys, while keeping me off my colors by destroying my Obelisks.

Round 2 I mulligan to 6 on the draw and I think I'm going to lose again. He plays Rhox pancake flipper and an Exalted guy and the Exalted enchantment, so the score goes to 11 to 26. I crack with a Wild Nacatl a couple of times behind my Naya Battlemage to tap guys. He plops down some more guys and a Stoic Angel and it looks really really bad for me, but I'm holding 2 Naya Charms to tap down his guys, and I've got Angelsong in hand too. I draw enough land to plop down a Flameblast Dragon, which prevents him from attacking. The score goes from 6-25 to 6-19 for me to play Naya Charm number two, then 6-11, then he taps out, plays some dude on the ground, so I tap his Angel, then finally play out the Rafiq of the Many to do 12 points. Yeah I had bombs, but I really had to plan out how I was going to win that game without losing to letting a guy through and playing a pump spell. Or maybe it was just two Naya Charms turning his Stoic Angel against him.

He then makes a comment along the lines of "Well I guess you can only hope for a draw" and I could feel it was getting pretty tense because he just lost from being up 6 to 25, made some questionable plays and untaps, and I had been a little snippier than I think I come across with responses and stuff. Time is short, so I play a little faster and try to speed him up, because I think my deck is better and I can absolutely get there. I ramp up pretty quickly and make I think a Wild Nacatl, Mayael the Anima, then serve up a fatty with Mayael, while he was beating me with a Deft Duelist and I think a Mosstodon. Time is called as he's making his Mosstodon, so I draw and pass with like those 3 guys and a Naya mana elf. He serves with Mosstodon which I let through, putting the score 6-11 in his favor, then plays some ramp stuff but doesn't leave colored mana up, at least not enough for Bant Charm. I draw for turn 2/5 extra turns, think for a little bit about the Resounding Thunder in my hand, and attack with all my guys, then mutter "Shit" trying to play like I goofed and I'd lose to a crack back or something. He blocks my 1/1, letting 10 through, and as soon as he let's the 10 through I flip Thunder onto the table and that's the game. I'm sure he was really miffed, so I didn't jump up and down like I have before when I make really sick plays to steal a win.

Round 3 I play against Joey, a First Pick regular and flood two games in a row. We play more for fun after that and I blow him out in 2 games thanks to Rafiq of the Many serving up 10-12 point deaths, then I misread my hand in the 5th game and get blown out by keeping a hand that didn't let me cast spells. Round 4 I play against someone who to me seemed like more of a casual player, and he blows me out in two. I get nothing, although I wouldn't have won much anyway.

I thought my mulligan decisions were pretty suspect, and I think I need to learn what's par for openings in the new format. Do I want to ramp, or do I still want an early game, and how much do I value having a hand with all my colors of land and just drawing into spells and playing all of them? I was REALLY bad about accounting for Unearth cards on the other side of the table. I would make trades with them that would be fine under normal circumstances, but the guys come back and wreck me. It's almost as if some of the really good Unearth guys are better left on the board than dying. I also felt myself giving away Naya Charm when I would contemplate letting damage go through, but I always ended up playing it out because I was thinking about it the turn before, maybe I take a page from poker and just think about every attack long and hard like I've got things to think about, but that doesn't really go well with me wanting to speed up my game.

I didn't think I punted any games, just some unfortunate floods and mana screws. It does concern me that I'm going 2-2 against randoms, where starting 2-2 in the PTQ will mean the end of my day. I need to get myself to the point where as long as I have a decent pool I can make good plays that will help me beat better decks, and I have 3 weeks to do that, along with 3 weeks of figuring out how to build the sealed decks and ultimately deciding what cards are actually good and what cards are actually bad.

Tomorrow (today, Sunday) I'm off to Redmond for a store prerelease, which will be giving out regular store credit in addition to packs, so a lot to play for, especially with new people coming in just for the prerelease.

Two drafts

Wednesday I decided I was going to go straight from work to go draft at First Pick. I opened the Blue/Black Liege and picked it, then was passed the Red/Black Liege, which I took over the Blue/Black 3/2 flier for 3. I don't remember a lot of details from this draft since it was two days ago now, but I was definitely trying to take the most solid card in the deck, but ended up with a Blowfly Infestation, a couple Scars and some guys, so I tried committing myself to black. In the third pack I picked a couple of Hatchlings high over 2 and 3 drops and ended up with a very 4-drop heavy deck that I didn't like putting together, but had to go with.

Round 1 I played against Martin who won Seattle Regionals this past summer and did pretty well at Nationals, and who I remember from last summer being one of the best players in the area. He also plays insanely fast, and the previous week I heard him get pretty upset with someone who was going into the tank for a while. With my place being on the slow side, I felt pressured as I was shuffling up. Game 1 he stumbles on land and I attempt to put the pressure on, but I make some bad decisions trying to be timely with his decisions and I know he's thinking way ahead of me, and he ends up coming back. Game 2 I don't really remember but I think it was a blowout. I put myself out of that game before I even played a land. I know that he plays fast, but I have to play at my pace. I've never gotten a slow play warning, so my pace must be acceptable at least to a judge. I already talked about how I'd like to play faster so that I don't draw unnecessarily, but I can't push it or try to keep up with someone's pace.

Round 2 I play against Eli, another solid player. Game 1 was actually pretty close. I made an attack toward the end of the game when he had a big guy, a Safehold Duo, and a Green mana up. I knew to play around Barkshell Blessing, but totally didn't fully consider how the best way for him to play it would be and end up losing two of my dudes and he loses none when he plays it out. Game 2 I'm under pressure early, get my two Lieges out, but can't draw more gas (not that my deck had much of it), and still lose. Out of the money.

I decide to play Round 3, but don't draw gas. My Scars are very underwhelming when my guys aren't even that good. 0-3 drop. I can chalk this one up to bad deck/bad color, but it wasn't like I was playing optimally either.

Friday I head out again, and there's only 14-15 people playing, presumably because everyone's ready for the new set to come out so they don't want to draft an irrelevant format. I draft a Red deck splashing White for Mercy Killing, Barkshell Blessing, and 3 Ballyknock Cohorts, 2 of which came about 5-7th pick in the second pack. I opened a Ballyknock Trapper and took I think an Outrage Shaman over it, then it came back and I took a Mimic over it because I wanted to be heavy Red to support my two Tattermunge Duos and Cinder Pyromancer, but I wasn't that heavy at 4 anyway, and I even cut a Mimic from my deck. My deck was still pretty solid with a good curve with lots of 3 drops and ways to win the close ones with Cinder Pyromancer/Flame Jab and Unwilling Recruit.

Round 1 I play against someone I played in the draft Extravaganza who I didn't think was that good. Game 1 I can't deal with an enchanted Slippery Boggle and lose. Games 2 and 3 my deck works pretty darn well and I don't think I ever thought I was going to lose either of those games.

Round 2 I played a WR deck, where at one point he had Prison Termed my guy and with a Finks and a Loyal Griffin beating me down from the air, with me with a few dorks. I ran out Unwilling Recruit on his Finks and even though he remove a guy the score goes from 13-19 in his favor to 13-8 in my favor. He sits back and after letting 3 go through, I run out Cinder Pyromancer and win out with Flame Jab. Game 2 is more of a blowout.

Round 3 I played a Black deck against someone who I think is pretty solid. Game 1 he draws 2 land, and Game 2 I curve out and he can't keep up. He tried to Fate Transfer from his Grief Tyrant to my Hatchet Bully, but I Mercy Killed for 3 tokens, then after running out a Green guy, attacked with 5 guys leaving back a Green guy and a White guy and he blocks with all he can leaving 2 1/1's, and I Barkshell Blessing with Conspire the two unblocked guys to deal the last 6. Blowout, yeah...

Round 4 I play against a regular. I blow him out Game 1 on his two lands, and I get blown out Game 2 after a mulligan to 5. Game 3 I mulligan again, but off of my six make my 1, 2, 3, and 4 drops. He plays out a Trapper which I dispatch with a Power of Fire on a Pili-Pala which I knew was going to get Cultbrand Cinder'd, but had to deal with. He runs out another Trapper, but I draw Flame Jab with the lands I smartly held in my hand and deal with it. I get him to 1 and just need to draw land and I get there. In that game I make the only real misplay that sticks out in my mind; I draw Flame Jab and have a Tattermunge Duo, a 4/4, and another guy and he has a couple dudes and the Tattermunge. I say Declare Attacks and he taps the 4/4, and then I realize I should have killed the Trapper right away, so that when he taps my 4/4, I still have a 4/5 to attack with which he will probably have to chump or gang block.

Other than that mistake, I was pretty happy with my play. Even though I wasn't playing against the best players that frequent the store, I'm glad I got there with a deck that was pretty good but didn't have bombs that just win the game, and I didn't punt any games.

This draft I wrote down every card that was played against me, which I think really helped my focus. I made sure to do it during my opponent's turn while he was untapping or drawing or something to not take up too much time, and it kept my mind from wandering off of the game. I totally plan on doing it during the prerelease tomorrow, not that the competition will be really great, but it's a habit I would like to develop because I think it helps me.

The past couple days I've been really looking over the commons of the set, mostly for draft and what archetypes show up. I don't know if I would draft two main colors and dip into the other two neighboring colors, or one main color and play cards from the two neighboring colors and focus on the guild. Regardless, this weekend is all Sealed Deck play, so I just have to focus on the best cards in the 75 that I open, but it did give me a look into how the format will play out. I think the commons are pretty typical, but you'll still want to get out to 7 and 8 mana to play your bombs. Tomorrow morning I'll look over the commons for tricks I need to watch out for, and then we'll see how it goes.