My Fearless Magic Inventory

To prepare for the last PTQ of the season in Portland, I was going to start analyzing my MODO replays from the crapload of drafts and the Sealed from the weekend, since I am on-call this week and really can't guarantee I can sit down for a three-hour draft without having to drop and deal with a page, but replays are deactivated until tomorrow's downtime. Sucks that it's Nix Tix the week I can't play any Magic tournaments!

This list was inspired by Sam Stoddard's Misetings thread and subsequent article on Star City from a year ago. I wrote this at an airport on my way back from Atlanta, because I felt semi-inspired after the PTQ because I knew I was not awful but could definitely get better. I'll just copy-paste the document I have on my computer.

Some of these might not make sense as it was just brainstorming, and isn't in any kind of particular order of importance, so feel free to ask about them or make suggestions.

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Things I Do Not Like About My Game
Most Magic players at PTQ’s make tons of mistakes. The difference with professionals is that professionals don’t make mistakes; they win the games they are supposed to win, lose the games they are supposed to lose, and don’t throw away games they are winning.
- Antonino de Rosa

“Kai Budde could have won that game.”
- Masashi Oiso

All

• I have to re-evaluate my plan every time I get the turn back, and end up playing too slow as a result.
• I'll have a particular plan playing around a card, but then I don't switch plans when it's not right to play around that card anymore.
• My mentality changes when I play against players that are a lot better than me, like Gurney, Jason, and Charles. I clearly played differently against Charles when I had no idea who he was.
• If my opponent’s play fast, I try to keep up and end up playing worse as a result.
• I don’t remember my plays well enough to re-evaluate games that I lose to find mistakes, especially if they are mistakes in planning or subtle mistakes.
• When I want to win the tournament, I put too much stress on myself during the game to think clearly. I have to just concentrate on playing correctly instead of going X-1-1.
• I bend the hell out of my lands when I play and tap them, so my shuffling is suspect. I should just lay down my cards normally.

Constructed

• I don’t know how to sideboard when there aren’t obviously dead cards.
• I really don’t know how to sideboard net decks as a result.
• When I think of sideboarding, I think of specific cards instead of the strategy as a whole.
• I don’t play Control decks fast enough to be confident in taking them to a tournament because of the mirror match.
• I don’t play enough different decks in testing to be able to switch decks the day if the metagame suggests to.
• I stick to testing one deck because of card availability, so it sometimes turns out that the week of the tournament that I realize the deck I’ve been playing is not a Tier 1 deck.
• I don’t test the mirror match enough to understand how to win them.
• I don’t adjust when net decks need to be adjusted and when they don’t. They are not always the optimal lists even if they top 8 a PTQ, but they also aren’t always awful.
• I don’t know how to build my own decks, or I don’t know what strategies would be powerful or just underwhelming.
• I don’t know how to play against Control decks or to play around counterspells. I always presume they have it.

Limited

• Shards of Alara specific – I can’t stay disciplined to two colors and end up playing a bad mana base.
• I don’t know when my deck can mulligan aggressively and when I can’t; I tend to mulligan aggressively all the time and I don’t know when keeping a one-lander is appropriate, or when my deck can't do better than what I've got
• In general, I don’t know how to split my lands.
• I give away my tricks when I go into the tank or tap my mana to consider playing it.
• Shards of Alara sealed specific – I don’t know when it’s appropriate to build a greedy deck.
• I don’t remember what cards are in my deck well enough and what cards I’ve picked in the current pack, especially pack 3, to evaluate the cards that I need.
• On MODO, I don't block as tightly. I presume from their ratings that they make loose attacks, since I (correctly?) presume from their ratings whether I can bluff a trick by attacking.
• I'm not good at new formats when I don't know all the cards., and when I don't know all the cards, I don't take detailed enough notes.

Cardboard crack goes digital again

For whatever reason, I decided to download MODO again. It wasn't as slow... but I was only drafting and not a full premier event that would ruin my computer's memory.

So the second draft I did tonight was a 4-3-2-2 ALA draft and I make my way to the finals to play against David, who happens to be a Seattle player, a very good one at that. He has drafted an Esper deck, and I am running Grw Naya. Game 1 I blow him out, and Game 2 he blows me out.

Game 3 my first play is a Court Archers and his is a Tidehollow Strix off of a mulligan I believe. We're beating each other, and he misses land and plays out Obelisks, and I eventually put down a Druid of the Anima and a Cavern Thoctar. He plays out another Obelisk, swings, and after my draw, the board looks like this:

Him: 14 life, 4 cards in hand.
His board: 1 tapped Swamp, 2 tapped Island, untapped Obelisk of Bant, Esper, and Grixis. One tapped Tidehollow Trix.

Me: 11 life, Sigil Blessing, Branching Bolt, Welkin Guide, Resounding Roar in hand
Board: all untapped Court Archers, Druid of the Anima, Cavern Thoctar, 2 Mountain, 2 Forest, 1 Plains.

Tricks I've seen are Grixis Charm, Agony Warp, and Resounding Wave. I know he has another Tidehollow Strix in there and a couple of Sanctum Gargoyles.

I already used a Resounding Thunder on his Scavenger Drake. (Possibly should have been Branching Bolt, because I know he's a tight player, saw Branching Bolt from me, and the only ground guy I did see was a Tidehollow Sculler.) If he has nothing in hand, I've got the game with my two pump spells, but that ain't happening. I've seen Resounding Wave earlier in the game, but I don't see a whole lot of point in alpha striking. So what are all the possible courses of action:

I could attack with everyone. Send in for 7. If I pass priority at this point, if he chooses to bounce/kill Thoctar (I guess Bant Charm is a possibility... otherwise there are no cards in the format that kill it), I could use my two pump spells to whack him for 9. Or I could let him bounce it, he takes 2, and I run out Welkin Guide. Next turn I can attack again with a kill possible, but my board is definitely worse.

If he doesn't do anything, he will take at least 7, which is alright. I run out Welkin Guide second main as another guy.

I could play Resounding Roar on my Court Archers before damage. If he plays Agony Warp on what I pump, and I respond with the Sigil Blessing on it, he will take 12 if he targeted Druid with -3/-0, 13 if he -3/-0's the Archers, or 12 if he targets the Thoctar. So he'd go to 2.

If he bounces the Archers I target with the pump, I let him take 6 and play my Court Archers again, saving my Sigil Blessing.

I could also Welkin Guide the Archers. If he deals with the Druid, he takes 6. If he bounces the Thoctar he takes 4 and goes to 10.

I could attack with the Thoctar and something else. If I leave back the Druid, I can follow similar reasoning as above. If I pass and he bounces the Thoctar, I can run my pumps and whack him for 7, or whack him for 1 and run out the Thoctar. I don't think he will deal with the Archers if I don't do anything. If I Resounding Roar the Archers and he does nothing he takes 10, or he Warps it, and I can Sigil Blessing and he takes 10 (don't think it matters who the targets are), and I can make it 11. If he bounces the Thoctar I run it out again.

If I attack with the Druid instead, it's pretty much the same except I cannot add an additional 1, or if he bounces Thoctar I cannot play it.

What I chose to do is attack with just the Thoctar, and it got bounced with Resounding Wave and I replayed it. This analysis took me probably 15 minutes to write up, so I wasn't able to really figure out that attack with everyone, running out a pump on a smaller guy and having him take 8 from my two pumps if he bounces Thoctar or a lot if he kills my pump target seems better.

How the game runs out is he attacks, plays another Strix, which I decide I need to kill. I attack with just the Thoctar again and it gets Resounding Silenced. Plays a Cloudskate Drake, attacks for 2 again putting me at 7, I draw something irrelevant, then he Esper Charms and draws a Sigil of Distinction, I start chumping, and he draws Sharuum and I scoop them up.

I probably really needed to think it out a little bit more, even if it took a few minutes, since it is MODO. Maybe pencil and paper would have helped? Not sure. Good players can run through that fast. I need to learn to do that.

Being lazy

I was thinking about a play from the Seattle PTQ and then thought about a play I made in the GP Atlanta Trials on Friday and realized they are very similar. Here's my play from the trial:

With me at 7, he has a Skeletal Kathari, Vithian Stinger, and Court Archers, and I have a Rakeclaw Gargantuan and a Sigiled Paladin. I am at 7, and he attacks. I decide I need to Soul's Fire to not die, so I run it out after his attacks choosing my Rakeclaw to hit his Kathari to make him at least sac a guy. For whatever reason, I did not specify that Exalted was on the stack. I think I thought he was had 8 mana and could cycle Resounding Roar, making my timing irrelevant, but that was not the case. He does have Resounding Roar and I die to lethal damage because I was extremely lazy.

The play I was thinking of from the PTQ involved Jon Loucks making a block, then his opponent asking "Stack damage?" to which Jon does something like ping his attacker that would die to one more damage and as a response the opponent bounces his own guy to what he thinks would save it and leave Jon's blocker dead from combat damage.

... except that damage was not on the stack. Jon had never indicated that he was ready to put damage on the stack, so the opponent asking "Stack damage?" was merely an indication that he was passing priority. From my understanding, a judge was called and ruled in favor of Jon, and the opponent was down a trick and probably also lost tempo if he couldn't play his guy back from spending the mana on the trick.

A couple of spectators called the play immoral, and I'm not talking about some little kids, I'm talking about the best players in Washington. A dick move? Obviously some would think so. I would always be specific about when I'm doing something and probably never try pulling something like that because I don't want to have to get in a fight over it, even if I know I am correct and the judge will rule in my favor.

Could the other player have done something about it? He could have been much more specific about what he was doing. "Stack damage" is so vague. A phrase like "I'm ready to put combat damage on the stack" (my old one) or simply "Pass priority"* (my new favorite) is much better. He could have also clarified when Jon was doing his thing, if he were aware of the ambiguity of just asking "Stack damage?"

Not trying to slam the guy, he is a good player and more accomplished than me. The point of all this is: DON'T BE LAZY! It usually always matters when you do something. If there are triggers, think about if there is any reason you would just want them to resolve. Generally there isn't. There wasn't in my case. Know exactly what phase you're in and make sure you can justify what phase you're in if you're opponent doesn't know, you might trick him and swindle a game if you're lucky (but then he'll might think you are a dick, which many writers have commented on).

For the first time in a while, I'm going to decline drafting at First Pick tonight. Gotta catch up on work. Maybe if I didn't blog so much.

* This weekend I was saying "Pass" during Declare Blockers instead of "Pass priority" and started saying "Pass priority" when an opponent asked if it was his turn and realized the ambiguity in what I was saying. "Pass" is definitely more often used to mean "End my turn". Glad that one didn't bite me, although I bet I could have argued my way out of that.

Great minds thinking alike

I actually had the pleasure of meeting Riki Hayashi in Atlanta through Tony Mayer and played EDH with him. I'm very happy that we both think Extended is very similar to the current season of Heroes.

From his article today:

There has been a call for Sensei’s Divining Top to be unbanned because “T1 Top, T2 Counterbalance kolds Elves.” Halleluiah! All of our problems are solved. Forgive me, but isn’t plan akin to releasing Sylar to help catch the escaped Level Fivers?

Constructed for Christmas?

With limited almost over, it's time to get into Constructed! I want to try some new ideas in Standard and playtest it more just to be more familiar with the matchups, since I did a fair amount of testing, but nowhere close to the amount I did last Extended season. (This is of course for the Type 2 Power tournament before Christmas.) Having a full-time job sucks, especially the full-time part! But so does not knowing people well enough to call them up and saying "We are playtesting for 6 hours right now!" like I could back at school. For States I probably tested 15-20 hours at most, whereas for the first Extended PTQ I think I can say I playtested closer to 30, and then probably closer to 40 before the Grand Prix. Considering my current circumstances, I'll just have to deal with it I guess.

I also want to start goldfishing some Extended. Even if it doesn't get banned after Worlds, I really don't want to play Elves since I'd play the mirror for half the day at a PTQ. Tezzeret doesn't seem that fun either, but I could play that. I could play Faeries, but I really want to play something more proactive and fun. I've checked off All-In Red, Goblins, and Dredge as decks from the Top 16 of the Pro Tour I'd like to try, and also Zoo since I think you can tune it to beat Elves. Hopefully Elves really isn't actually so powerful that it's incorrect not to play it, since I haven't tested it, since what I really liked about the last Extended format was that you could just play one of many powerful decks, play it well and see results. But if there's an overwhelmingly powerful deck, I'd make myself play it.

Back in Seattle tomorrow!

Grand Prix Atlanta - Day 2 (the PTQ)

Sixty-four players started the day drafting in the Grand Prix, while 240-some started another Sealed deck at the PTQ. I get passed a pool with tons of great Green and White beaters with three Akrasan Squires, 5 or 6 bears, and two Mycoloths, along with two Sigil Blessing. I was short on removal, with only Branching Bolt and the pseudo-removal Excommunicate, but the deck's plan was just to not have to remove things and run over people. I was in love with the deck because it was only playing 2 Red cards. I possibly could have cut an Obelisk of Naya for a Naturalize because I had 2 Mountains, a Jund Panorama, and a Druid of the Anima for my two red cards already... but I really didn't want to mess with the mana.

First two rounds are blowouts, as I wasn't playing against very good players. Round 3 I play Ben Stark, an old pro with a handful of Pro Tour top 8's. I already played him earlier in the weekend in a grinder, where he was late and got a game loss, then got blown out in the second game. This game, I lose the first one as he comes back, game 2 I win on the back of Mycoloth-Mycoloth, and game 3 I have too much pressure and win. He was pretty upset from the double Mycoloth since he told my friend he played the next round, but he was a lot cooler and nicer than I expected those old pros to be in the heat of battle.

I then lose the next two rounds. One round I lose in three because I cannot deal with Battlegrace Angel. The next round I lose to Scourglass and then a recurred Scourglass via Sanctum Gargoyle. I made a goof in that round where I intended to lay an Ethersworn Canonist with a Scourglass on the table, holding Elvish Visionary and Mycoloth in hand for post-Glass, but I looked down at the card I layed and it's Elvish Visionary. Since two turns before I made him burn for 1 when he overtapped his mana, I didn't even bother trying to pick it up.

I then beat Erik, who is a Raleigh player who I think is very good and whom I've never beat in like five sanctioned matches. I get blown out by Naya Charm game 1, get there with Mycoloth Game 2, then blow him out Game 3 when he can't draw his Plains for Naya Charm, which I don't feel remorse for necessarily since he was playing five colors.

I lose to an insane deck next with double Bant Charm, Naya Charm, double Oblivion Ring, and a couple other great tricks, and he just keeps drawing gas. That was one sick deck. I made one bad play where I played a Squire on a board of Ethersworn Canonist and a couple other Exalted guys, attack into a 3/3 or something, and he pays Sigil Blessing, and I'm about to tap my mana, but he notes that I have already played a spell, so I lose my guy. Felt really dumb because that's exactly what my plan was.

I blow out my next opponent, and then I go to three in my final round and lose because I can't deal with Elspeth. This includes an uncharacteristic mull to 5, the mana had been great all day, where I nearly keep any hand with a Plains, Squire, and bears. I possibly threw away Game 1 because I attacked Mycoloth into a Resounding Silence that I didn't consider. I possibly still needed the pressure to deal with Elspeth, but it was more likely a mistake and me not playing tightly at the end of the tournament.

So I went 5-4. If I had gone 6-3 I would have been pretty ecstatic given how my season has been going, but 5-4 is still the best I have done in Shards Sealed.

I gave Zack, a friend at Pitt, and he still asks me why I'm sucking the big one in Shards sealed. Maybe my deck should have been an X-3 or X-2, but I certainly can't complain about my pool, even if it did lack in hard removal. I thought this was the best day of Magic I've played this season, even if the record is relatively mediocre. It felt like while I was sitting down, I was a lot more relaxed than I have been where I put so much pressure on myself to the point where apparently I make really scrub plays.

If I had 0-2 dropped or something, I would be totally pissed, but my play today convinced me that maybe I'm not as bad at Magic as I think I am, and I probably think I'm way worse than I actually am. I think I'll still make the trip to Portland for one more PTQ, hopefully get lucky, but more hopefully to not make mistakes and get a decent enough record just so I can really tell myself that I'm not that bad.

Overall, my weekend was better than I expected. A lot of Raleigh guys that I used to play with came down, some old friends also made the trip, and I made some new friends, as opposed to not knowing anyone and sitting by myself goldfishing every round.

"Hey, Mike Ward, why did that guy just get DQ'd?"
"Language!"

Grand Prix Atlanta - Day 1

So I'm brimming with confidence going into Day 1, after some relatively good play at the Trials the night before. The deck I had had tons of Red and Black removal, and some green creatures and Necrogenesis to make Jund pretty clear, but the only fixing in the entire pool was a Savage Lands and two Obelisk of Esper. The blue I threw out immediately, so I would have to do with Savage Lands, and a 6-6-4 manabase.

Round 1 I beat someone pretty handily. Round 2 I go to three, and keep a dreadful hand of 4 Red burn spells, some Green creature, and two Swamps. I'm on the play, but I really don't want to send it back because I think I flat out win the game if I draw one of 7 red sources. I don't draw a third land even and I get blown out.

From there, wheels came off, although I don't think I played incorrectly. Round 3 I get blown out because I can't get past 4 lands. Round 4 I play against someone I beat in the trials the night before, flood Game 1 after I clear the board, then get manascrewed Game 2. Round 5 I lose to a pretty weak player who tried as hard as he could to get me back into Game 1, which I probably just should have scooped because he got to 39, and then Game 2 I don't play spells again.

It's just so frustrating because I honestly can't figure out what I'm doing wrong. I don't think I could be as aggressive mulliganing with this deck because my mana was so awful, but then should I keep hands like I kept in Round 2? I'll post the deck list eventually.

I'm not totally convinced that this just doesn't happen to better players. I watched Tomaharo Saito keep 4 red removal cards, a Jund Obelisk, a Cavern Thoctar or something, and a SWAMP, on the play, Game 3, and he rips land land and wins it. Like what the hell??? I'm not going to call shenanigans on that, but how do you keep that EVER?! Is that what it really takes?

More mana issues would arise in the draft I signed up for. I drafted a removal-heavy Grixis deck that played pretty well in Round 1, but then in Round 2 I don't draw land and don't draw spells and I lose. Normal land screw this time, but still unbelievable.

It's hard for me to put this one behind me because it's happened all season, and I honestly don't have any ideas how to get better, and I really don't want to just say that it's the format, because obviously some players are still winning more consistently than I am, and I'd like to think there is something I can do to become better.

I need to clear my head somehow for tomorrow's PTQ, start with a clean slate, and just play well. I thought I was playing well today, but I wish I could see an indication. UGHHHHHH why did I miss the one Constructed tournament in what seems like years last weekend?

Grand Prix Atlanta - Day 0

Despite terrible weather and flight delays, I get into Atlanta, checked in, and at the site just in time to jump into the first flight. Turns out there were no less than three big pros in the tournament in Player of the Year frontrunner Shuhei Nakamura, Australian national champion Aaron Nicastri, and the old Deadguy pro Chris Pikula. Just great.

The pool I opened in the first pool was pretty good that I stretched to four colors. I end up losing the first round in two because both games his Hell's Thunder was good for 10 thanks to Court Archers. I didn't think I made any mistakes.

The next pool is maybe not as powerful, but I kept it to three colors: RGW with Obelisk of Jund for my Resounding Thunder. I won the first round against an old pro because he was late and got a Game Loss and then got blown out Game 2.

The second round I played against a Georgia Tech student. I scooped up game 1 after about 40 minutes, and then blow him out game 2 as time expires. The way it works now is we play five turns of Game 3, then check the life totals to determine the winner. So I take out my 3 Rakeclaw Gargantuan and put in Behemoth's Herald, Goblin Mountaineer, Angelsong, Soul's Grace (the one that gains life), and some other card. He has to mulligan to 5 on the play, hopes that I don't have a turn 1 play, but drop a Goblin Mountaineer. After his turn 3, I win because the score is 19-20. Pretty darn funny.

Third round I win in two. Fourth round I get stuck on two with my 6 and get blown out, then blow him out game two. Game three I have to mulligan to 5, but I nearly stabilize and try to do the little things to keep me in the game. With me at 7, he has a Skeletal Kathari, Vithian Stinger, and Court Archers, and I have a Rakeclaw Gargantuan and a Sigiled Paladin. I am at 7, and he attacks. I decide I need to Soul's Fire to not die, so I run it out after his attacks choosing my Rakeclaw to hit his Kathari to make him at least sac a guy. For whatever reason, I did not specify that Exalted was on the stack. I think I thought he was had 8 mana and could cycle Resounding Roar, making my timing irrelevant, but that was not the case. He does have Resounding Roar and I die to lethal damage because I was extremely lazy. I decided not to push it, and talking to L3 judge Tony Mayer, it would be implied that I let the trigger resolve. Probably my one mistake the entire day. Ugh so close to three byes just to be careless and throw it away.

I felt really really good about how I was playing. I was very relaxed, like I didn't want it as badly as I have in the past. I just focused on playing correctly, which is what I was telling people about how I was doing: I felt I was playing correctly. Hopefully I will keep it going tomorrow and make a strong run, because judging by today, the mini-break from Magic is helping me.

Alright, no more jinxing this, time for bed, got a big day tomorrow.

Magic-League limited stats

So in the same vein as the Standard analysis I posted, I cooked up some Perl scripts to analyze the Sealed minis run on Magic-League. For right now, I just looked at the straight up W-L of every deck registered and accumulated records for each card in the format based on whether it was maindecked or not. Here are some preliminary results:

Most maindecked cards by %:

 Maindecked Sideboarded % played
Sarkhan Vol 188 9 95.431%
Flameblast Dragon 387 23 94.390%
Ajani Vengeant 206 13 94.064%
Feral Hydra 368 27 93.165%
Resounding Thunder 2164 240 90.017%
Mycoloth 368 41 89.976%
Broodmate Dragon 361 44 89.136%
Caldera Hellion 396 51 88.591%
Jungle Shrine 1089 148 88.036%
Battlegrace Angel 323 49 86.828%
Oblivion Ring 2149 331 86.653%
Savage Lands 2069 367 84.934%
Elspeth, Knight-Errant 169 31 84.500%
Magma Spray 2048 377 84.454%
Sigil of Distinction 338 64 84.080%
Branching Bolt 1985 393 83.474%
Rhox Charger 1063 213 83.307%
Skeletonize 1051 218 82.821%
Hellkite Overlord 165 35 82.500%
Predator Dragon 315 72 81.395%

Win percentage when card is maindecked
Note: If a card is doubled in a maindeck, it counts twice (seeing as that particular card is twice as responsible for a deck's result as any singleton)

 MD W MD L %
Where Ancients Tread 35 20 63.636%
Flameblast Dragon 423 276 60.515%
Caldera Hellion 429 282 60.338%
Manaplasm 360 252 58.824%
Spearbreaker Behemoth 371 260 58.796%
Woolly Thoctar 1000 707 58.582%
Broodmate Dragon 376 266 58.567%
Ajani Vengeant 212 153 58.082%
Bull Cerodon 1020 745 57.790%
Qasali Ambusher 744 545 57.719%
Knight-Captain of Eos 298 220 57.529%
Realm Razer 250 185 57.471%
Topan Ascetic 892 663 57.363%
Vithian Stinger 1910 1423 57.306%
Skeletonize 1060 791 57.266%
Wild Nacatl 1544 1165 56.995%
Jungle Shrine 1081 817 56.955%
Cavern Thoctar 1532 1172 56.657%
Sarkhan Vol 183 141 56.481%
Resounding Thunder 2105 1624 56.449%

 MD W MD L %
Clarion Ultimatum 0 5 0.000%
Mindlock Orb 1 4 20.000%
Crucible of Fire 1 4 20.000%
Cathartic Adept 20 60 25.000%
Cradle of Vitality 2 6 25.000%
Soul's Grace 24 71 25.263%
Shadowfeed 13 37 26.000%
Banewasp Affliction 11 31 26.190%
Vicious Shadows 4 11 26.667%
Marble Chalice 25 63 28.409%
Filigree Sages 41 91 31.061%
Onyx Goblet 68 146 31.776%
Dragon's Herald 12 25 32.432%
Memory Erosion 12 25 32.432%
Vectis Silencers 65 130 33.333%
Resounding Scream 32 63 33.684%
Behemoth's Herald 19 37 33.929%
Thoughtcutter Agent 39 73 34.821%
Lush Growth 97 181 34.892%
Immortal Coil 6 11 35.294%

Interesting... win percentage when the card sits in the board:

 SB W SB L %
Elspeth, Knight-Errant 32 21 60.377%
Battlegrace Angel 56 37 60.215%
Sphinx Sovereign 125 87 58.962%
Prince of Thralls 133 98 57.576%
Esper Panorama 1081 800 57.469%
Master of Etherium 355 267 57.074%
Stoic Angel 192 145 56.973%
Lich's Mirror 151 116 56.554%
Invincible Hymn 379 294 56.315%
Sedris, the Traitor King 99 77 56.250%
Grixis Panorama 929 724 56.201%
Sacellum Godspeaker 301 235 56.157%
Infest 623 488 56.076%
Sharding Sphinx 203 160 55.923%
Knight-Captain of Eos 123 97 55.909%
Angelic Benediction 898 709 55.881%
Grixis Battlemage 886 700 55.864%
Archdemon of Unx 241 191 55.787%
Courier's Capsule 1536 1219 55.753%
Oblivion Ring 325 258 55.746%

Contrast with the worst win percentages when the card sits in the board:

 SB W SB L %
Sarkhan Vol 3 7 30.000%
Caldera Hellion 30 45 40.000%
Resounding Thunder 140 207 40.346%
Hellkite Overlord 22 31 41.509%
Bloodpyre Elemental 337 474 41.554%
Skeletonize 133 184 41.956%
Mycoloth 25 34 42.373%
Kresh the Bloodbraided 30 38 44.118%
Predator Dragon 51 63 44.737%
Jungle Shrine 100 121 45.249%
Broodmate Dragon 29 35 45.313%
Branching Bolt 274 328 45.515%
Jund Battlemage 178 212 45.641%
Vithian Stinger 372 442 45.700%
Naya Panorama 335 389 46.271%
Mosstodon 486 556 46.641%
Jungle Weaver 644 726 47.007%
Woolly Thoctar 275 308 47.170%
Magma Spray 285 315 47.500%
Cavern Thoctar 668 736 47.578%

Difference in win percentage between maindecking and sideboarding.

 diff
Sarkhan Vol 26.481%
Caldera Hellion 20.338%
Resounding Thunder 16.104%
Skeletonize 15.311%
Bloodpyre Elemental 13.750%
Broodmate Dragon 13.254%
Mycoloth 12.811%
Hellkite Overlord 12.337%
Jungle Shrine 11.706%
Vithian Stinger 11.605%
Woolly Thoctar 11.412%
Kresh the Bloodbraided 11.397%
Where Ancients Tread 10.622%
Manaplasm 10.212%
Predator Dragon 9.494%
Naya Panorama 9.344%
Cavern Thoctar 9.078%
Branching Bolt 8.961%
Mosstodon 8.632%
Jund Panorama 7.911%

 diff
Clarion Ultimatum -49.367%
Crucible of Fire -32.922%
Cradle of Vitality -30.102%
Mindlock Orb -29.765%
Soul's Grace -28.195%
Shadowfeed -28.130%
Cathartic Adept -28.075%
Banewasp Affliction -27.956%
Vicious Shadows -27.311%
Marble Chalice -25.236%
Filigree Sages -23.593%
Onyx Goblet -21.913%
Resounding Scream -20.897%
Vectis Silencers -20.285%
Memory Erosion -19.824%
Behemoth's Herald -19.724%
Immortal Coil -19.411%
Thoughtcutter Agent -19.049%
Lush Growth -18.717%
Dragon's Herald -18.069%

Win percentage when card is present in pool.
So I guess you could just figure out how many games you should win as soon as you get the pool :)

 Total W Total L %
Flameblast Dragon 445 295 0.601351351
Caldera Hellion 459 327 0.583969466
Ajani Vengeant 225 165 0.576923077
Broodmate Dragon 405 301 0.573654391
Spearbreaker Behemoth 455 339 0.573047859
Knight-Captain of Eos 421 317 0.570460705
Battlegrace Angel 374 283 0.569254186
Manaplasm 430 326 0.568783069
Bull Cerodon 1270 988 0.562444641
Invincible Hymn 384 301 0.560583942
Jungle Shrine 1181 938 0.557338367
Qasali Ambusher 1129 897 0.557255676
Sarkhan Vol 186 148 0.556886228
Woolly Thoctar 1275 1015 0.556768559
Topan Ascetic 1182 948 0.554929577
Sacellum Godspeaker 387 311 0.554441261
Oblivion Ring 2367 1921 0.552005597
Realm Razer 357 290 0.551777434
Puppet Conjurer 1157 943 0.550952381
Resounding Thunder 2245 1831 0.550785083

Watch out for these ones :X

 Total W Total L %
Skill Borrower 312 343 0.476335878
Godsire 159 169 0.484756098
Scourglass 306 321 0.488038278
Clarion Ultimatum 312 325 0.489795918
Mindlock Orb 318 324 0.495327103
Sedraxis Specter 336 334 0.501492537
Dragon's Herald 1019 1012 0.501723289
Quietus Spike 321 317 0.503134796
Salvage Titan 336 329 0.505263158
Scavenger Drake 1066 1035 0.507377439
Rafiq of the Many 163 158 0.507788162
Esper Charm 1074 1038 0.508522727
Covenant of Minds 325 314 0.508607199
Archdemon of Unx 350 336 0.510204082
Knight of the White Orchid 318 304 0.511254019
Cloudheath Drake 2002 1912 0.51149719
Mayael the Anima 154 147 0.511627907
Rockcaster Platoon 1041 992 0.512051156
Ridge Rannet 2004 1909 0.512139024
Memory Erosion 371 353 0.512430939

Obviously, take this for what it's worth. The bad cards have bad winning percentages because bad players play those cards. An interesting thing I'd like to compute is the expected win percentage, based on the Limited ratings. So say Resounding Thunder has some win percentage, and based on the ratings of the people who play that card, it's expected to win some percentage of games. If it's higher than expected, then it's that damn good; if it's lower, maybe we need to reconsider our evaluation of that card.

Not quite the same as playtesting or building sealed pools, but it's what I can do :)

Incremental Growth goes to the Grand Prix

While me having to be in North Carolina for the week is a very very unfortunate and unpleasant circumstance, it does give me the opportunity to make a stop this weekend at Atlanta for the Grand Prix. Personally, I need something like this to get my mind off of such heavy matters so that I can resume normal life upon returning to Seattle.

But preparation? I pretty much stay up all night at the hospital with my work laptop, which rules out Magic Workstation, and then sleep all day. I have zero product with me, as I wasn't worried a whole lot about Magic cards when I made the trip, so when I arrive on Friday for the Trials, I will have not played Magic for the entire week.

But I wonder if that will have a positive or negative affect on my game? I've taken two relatively long breaks from Magic from doing drum corps for the entire summer, and both times I have come back pretty rusty at my game and lacking focus, and I would need a few weeks or an entirely new format to get back into it.

But I've been doing three paper Shards drafts a week since it come out, certainly more if you consider side drafts at PTQs and the couple draft-all-days. I'd like to say that I have a general grasp on card evaluations and what synergies and combos are available, yet I'm still making on-board mistakes and such. A semi-fresh look at the format will hopefully open my to things I'm not seeing and free me from some shortcuts and mental blocks that have been negatively affecting my game.

Alright, hopefully I'll find some things on the Interweb to write about before the Grand Prix.

A statistical look at the Standard metagame

So I've been tinkering a little bit with an application that takes all the Standard decks played in Magic-League tournaments and determines what are the common decks being played by finding the similarity between all pairs of decks and then clustering the resulting graph. The clustering is fairly naive; I just consider the clusters formed by the subset of edges with the greatest weight (similarity).

Similarity is the percentage of different non-land cards among two decks, in a nutshell. I only looked at the clusters that represented at least 1% of the decks (I had about 4200 decks downloaded), and these are the best results I got, considering pairs of decks that are at least 80% similar:

541 Faeries
465 Five Color Control
313 Kithkin
281 Red Deck Wins
203 BG Rock
160 Reveillark
141 Merfolk
52 Doran
49 Ten Commandments
2205 decks covered

Note that this doesn't cover all of the decks played, since there are a lot of homebrews, variants, and plain ol' bad decks played. But this is an interesting look, considering that on Magic League there is no issue of card availability.

In the future, I'll expose this via a web tool. Some other ideas are to break down variants of each large archetype, break down matchup statistics (since Magic-League publishes all match results to their tournaments), determine the most characteristic decklists for an archetype (using some kind of node centrality metric), and implement some kind of tagging system to name archetypes.

If you have any other ideas for this, I'd love to here it!

Unfortunate circumstances

A family emergency came up and I have to fly home tonight, so I won't be playing in States. I put down a lot of money to build the deck I wanted to play, but some things are bigger than dollars and playing Magic cards.

So what's next for me?

• There is a limited PTQ in Portland, OR on December 6.
• Worlds is the following weekend, which will then be the launching pad for Extended testing. This may be a different format than what we saw in Berlin if changes to the Banned list happen and/or if the pros shake up/fix the format.
• But before Extended PTQs gets going, Tony Mayer will be hosting a Standard tournament December 20 for a Mox Pearl to 1st and a Library of Alexandria for 2nd.
• Extended PTQs will start with the new year and run until April, but rumor has it on January 16-18 is Grand Prix: Los Angeles, which I am interested in attending if it is for real. I will strongly consider going to any other constructed Grand Prix in North America.
  

So I guess after this weekend I'll be back to the grind of drafting, drafting, drafting.

Who the heck came up with "Red Deck Wins" anyway?

So I'm going to commit to playing Red Deck Wins. I think it will be a solid call in a metagame where Five-Color Control and Faeries are the consensus best decks in the format, since I think I have an edge on Five-Color and am pretty solid against Faeries. Here's the 60 I'm going to run:

18 Mountain
4 Ghitu Encampment

4 Figure of Destiny
4 Mogg Fanatic
4 Ashenmoor Gouger
3 Boggart Ram-Gang
3 Hell's Thunder
4 Stigma Lasher
4 Demigod of Revenge

4 Magma Spray
4 Incinerate
4 Flame Javelin

The sideboard will look something like this:
4 Pyroclasm
2 Wild Richochet
2 Chaotic Backlash (???)
4 Vexing Shusher
3 undecided... Everlasting Torment? Pithing Needle? Manabarbs?

I don't think Manabarbs is a good solution because I think I would only bring it in against Five-Color, and they can trump me with Runed Halo naming Manabarbs. Everlasting Torment and Pithing Needle solve Story Circle and Burrenton-Forge Tender, while Torment will also answer Runed Halo when a creature like Demigod of Revenge is named, and Needle can stop Planeswalkers and Tokens. Not sure, will try both a couple times in the coming week.

Kithkin is my worst matchup because of Spectral Procession and Cloudgoat Ranger. Pyroclasm probably helps, and I threw in Chaotic Backlash too, but I need Everlasting Torment/Needle too for Burrenton Forge-Tender, so I'll test this too, maybe I don't need Chaotic Backlash.

I'm actually really excited for States. Hooray 60-card decks!

The Cool Kids Club

I drafted today in Redmond and went 4-0 with a pretty good RGB deck that I thought was pretty bad because I had to play a 5-5-5 manabase with a Jund Panorama, Grixis Panorama, and a Obelisk of Jund. Thought for sure I would lose a match to color screw, but I managed to get lucky a couple times on two land hands, and I did elect to draw whenever given the choice. It also helped that I had 2 Sprouting Thranax and 2 Jund Charms.

In Round 2 I play against a newer player who comes with his young son every week. He has a pretty good Bant deck with double Rhox War Monk and double Oblivion Ring. Game 1 I get blown out pretty badly when he runs out both his Oblivion Rings on my fat and I can't deal with his Rockcaster Platoon, but he likes to talk out all of his plays and his thinking and asks for a lot of clarifications which really really slows the play down, and spends time kidding around with some plays and mannerisms. Game 2 I win past a Rhox War Monk, but again takes a very long time with the same talking through plays and clarifying. I set up an attack where he's at 7 and tapped out and facing lethal damage no matter how he blocks.

Him: "Okay." Just kind of sits there.
Me: "... go to game 3?"
Him: "Well wait, can I stall it out and try to get a draw?"
Me: "That wouldn't be cool."

In game 3, he keeps kidding around (to him, all in good nature) about his comment and how it isn't "cool", so I'm getting pretty upset, but I keep concentrating on the game because I want it to finish. After the TO Jeff walks by and explains that stalling is a serious offense (cheating, in fact, according to the Penalty Guidelines) and he makes another comment about "not being cool" and making fun of it all, I flat out tell him as calmly as I can "Look, it wasn't funny" and he gets the picture that I was upset from the course of events. The match goes to extra turns and thanks to a good draw I am able to win on the fifth and final turn. I was pretty upset it came to that because of his pace of play, obviously not maliciously trying to take advantage and only trying to understand what was going on, but in no way fast enough to finish three games in 50 minutes, and especially since I've tried really hard to speed up my play and stop getting unintentional draws. He did apologize for making too much fun out of it all, presumably after talking more with Jeff about what was happening.

I know exactly why he plays the way he does and thinks out loud basic situations and tries to clarify everything he can: because he is a new player and wants to get better. Fair enough. If this were at a PTQ and in the winner's bracket, I would absolutely call a judge over for stalling. But this was a regular weekend draft, and I know for a fact there was no malicious intent behind this, and I do care about not being a prick to the people I play with every week. That being said, since prizes are determined by record and not place, a draw would have affected what I get, which might have been 2 packs or something seemingly insignificant which is half a draft in credit, but imagine this scenario.

Me: (takes a $6.50 bill from you and rips it up) "Oh, it's just money, you have enough of it and you'll get more next week, lighten up!"

Yeah, it's not a lot of money, but I don't think too many of you wouldn't at least give a "What the f!@$", if not physically hurt me.

More importantly, I expect, and I think all of us expect, a certain level of seriousness and focus when you play in a sanctioned event. It really sounds silly on the outside looking in because it's just Magic cards, but there are other avenues to enjoy the game that don't take as much time and money if the experience of tournament Magic didn't matter to me. I'm more than happy to play anyone who wants to play between rounds of a draft and give advice, but inside an actual match is a little inappropriate, especially when it bogs down the game as much as it did in this case. I'm strongly of the opinion that matches in Limited go to time because people are either not being aggressive enough or they are playing too slow.

So that's off my chest. The rest of the draft was uneventful. Round 1 I played against a regular who's pretty good in 3, but threw away game 2 when I misexecuted a plan I had just from carelessness. Round 3 I blew out a regular, and Round 4 I beat a relatively new tournament player.

A little more States testing coming this week, mostly checking out sideboarding strategies and finding cards to borrow. I like the Red deck because it has edges against Faeries and Five-Color Control, but it scoops it hard to Kithkin. I tried Kithkin and it's good against Faeries, tears up the red deck, but literally cannot beat Five-Color, so I'm considering both decks.

The new Extended, or what happens when you try to change the past

The premise of the current season of Heroes is that future Peter Petrelli travels back in time to tell the present Peter Petrelli that the future is really messed up and that he needs to stop events in the present from occuring so that this future doesn't occur.

Or if you prefer, in Back to the Future II, Marty McFly travels into the future and buys a sports almanac to make money in the present on bets, but crochety old Biff takes the almanac and steals the time machine and travels to the past and gives it to himself, and messes up the present. Marty and Doc Brown have to go back and undo what happened to mess it up.

Well, I don't who Wizards of the Coast goes to for time travel. Maybe Kenji Tsumura's superhuman ability isn't Magical powers, but time travel like fellow countryman Hiro Nakamura. Or an artist was modifying the art on a Sensei's Divining Top and saw something terrible like Isaac Mendez did. Or MaRo was fresh out of ideas for new Magic cards, hopped in his Delorean, and brought back the Top from a future World of Warcraft set. WHATEVER happened, the banning of Top has appeared to really mess up Extended, as these really busted Elf combo decks took over Pro Tour Berlin.

Of course, I was thinking the mirror matches would go really fast as the decks can win the turn they go off. Nope, games were apparently taking over an hour, with hundreds of tokens, hundreds of life, and 150/150 Predator Dragons, and way too much math. And these aren't guys at PTQs or FNMs that just copied the list from the Pro Tour. This IS the Pro Tour, and these are the game's professionals. And games are taking over an hour.

If Sensei's Divining Top was banned because rounds were taking too long, it looks like the abundance of this mirror match in the PTQ's will actually be worse for time, because these huge turns could happen during extra turns. And then there could still be a stalemate if both players go off. And hoping that the Pros can find the answer to this deck for Worlds, we might have a two deck format, or a Dredge-like phenomenon where you have to be packing the hate in your sideboard if you don't want to get blown out. It looked like the Tezzerator had the right idea with Needles, Explosives, Trinispheres, and Chalice of the Voids, and he STILL lost in 5 to LSV, the eventual champion!

Rome was dominated by Tolarian Academy and led to bannings. New York (Masques block) was dominatd by Rebels and led to bannings. I don't think we need to absolutely nerf the deck ala Affinity. (Banning Heritage Druid? Glimpse of Nature? Most embarassing ban ever?) I think unbanning Sensei's Divining Top would be a good idea to keep decks like this in check and give Control a greater presence, seeing as there really isn't a great control deck in the format. I thought the previous Extended format was really great. Yeah, Countertop might have been the best deck and really really powerful, but still beatable and there were tons of great alternatives. I don't know if I can say the same.

Wizards, whatever you saw in the future is probably better than this. What you thought would be a good idea and harmless, if not healthy for the format, wasn't. Consider Sensei's Divining Top a less attractive, less human version of Claire Bennet. Save the cheerleader, save the world.