I grew up in Raleigh, NC, and my weekends in high school usually included time at All Fun 'n Games in Apex, NC. Now, I sucked. I couldn't draft for the life of me, played loose as hell, and only came out ahead in Constructed because I was playing better decks than half the room since I used the Internet.
A fixture there was Bobbie McRae, one of the two women who ran the store. I went off to college a million miles away, but on my breaks home would find time to make a visit and draft, and Bobbie would always be excited to see an old familiar face.
I hadn't been to the store for probably the past year since my trips home had been much more serious with the health and the passing of my father, but I recently got a message from an old Magic baller friend from this time period about playing Two-Headed Giant this weekend at AFNG. (The last time he played was four years ago when I was home, he hadn't played for a year, and he asked me to play 2HG with him at the store also! How can I say no to an old friend?)
I went to the site for info about the tournament, and to my shock, the front page had a blurb that Bobbie had passed away this year to a long fight with cancer. I knew she had been sick, but she always seemed so cheerful when she was at the store that you wouldn't believe that she was undergoing treatment if you didn't hear it from someone.
I'm upset that the last time I saw her was probably over a year ago, but if she were still around, I'd thank Bobbie for being a part of my Magic experience and my growing up, and hope that she and those by whom she is survived are proud of her work sharing gaming with a lot of people.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
My Grand Prix Wish List
I guess it's almost Christmas time, so here's my Grand Prix wish list for 2010. The entire 2010 schedule is here. These are the one's I'm probably making plans for:
Feb. 13-14 Oakland, CA, T1.x
April 3-4 Houston, TX, T1.x
June 12-13 Manila, Philippines, T2
Sept. 11-12 Portland, OR, M2010 Limited
Oct. 23-24 Toronto, ON, "Lights" Limited
The North American Grand Prixs are pending the location not being somewhere awful, like GP Tampa or GP Atlanta. Oakland's close, and Houston and Toronto should be pretty awesome places to visit... right?
Feb. 13-14 Oakland, CA, T1.x
April 3-4 Houston, TX, T1.x
June 12-13 Manila, Philippines, T2
Sept. 11-12 Portland, OR, M2010 Limited
Oct. 23-24 Toronto, ON, "Lights" Limited
The North American Grand Prixs are pending the location not being somewhere awful, like GP Tampa or GP Atlanta. Oakland's close, and Houston and Toronto should be pretty awesome places to visit... right?
Random thoughts
Skill with a stupid pool
"My pool was busted... but it actually took a lot of skill to play."
Someone got upset by this comment regarding the last PTQ. I mean, it's a kind of silly comment to make, but it has some merit. When you're deep in a Limited PTQ, you're going to play against really really stupid pools, pools as ridiculous as yours. So what becomes a factor? Being really bad at Magic. Sometimes the power of your pool will get you into the top 8, but it will happen less often if you suck.
Jedi Mind Tricks
I've also heard talk about Jedi Mind Tricks. LSV said it best in one of the clips from Worlds: it's not as valuable as playing correctly. Trying to "bluff" a combat trick when you're thinking ahead to attacks? Not that valuable if you ask me. You know what is valuable? Not giving away anything so he has no clue what you might have.
Looking weak when you've got a blowout trick? Poker Tells 101: if he's acting weak, he's strong; if he's acting strong, he's weak.
You know what's really more valuable than Jedi Mind Tricks? Learning to attack and block correctly. Or planning out your turns and pacing your spells appropriately. Or finding sideboard cards or unconventional plays that will give you an edge against an opponent's deck in Limited.
I certainly do not work on Jedi Mind Tricks at all. I make too many mistakes on the board that I would rather patch those up than make up for them with such a slight edge. I think you should too, you're hardly flawless. Those situations where it was your only out? Don't get in those situations in the first place!
Sideboarding
So I am an atrocious sideboarder in Constructed. Probably because I'm not very good at building my own decks. I mean, I guess I knew how to sideboard my "Bant Plus" deck since that was my baby for two months before the rotation, but any other net deck, I'm hopeless. I can guess what comes in, but can never figure out what comes out.
The problem lies in that you want a fully functional 60 cards for Games 2 and 3 and not just a pile. With aggro decks, if you're not just taking flat out dead cards, you could be messing with the consistency of the deck: less solid starts. This was the problem with sideboarding with Affinity; if you take out too many artifacts, you're not Affinity anymore.
So what's a player to do? I think you have to consider the role of the cards you bring in and leave in.
- If they're good in multiples or you will just dominate the game if this spell is cast, you want 4 in the deck. You'll start with the card in your seven in 40% if your games, 44% after your first draw, 48% after two, 52% after three, 56% after four, and 60% after turn 5.
- What about 3? 31% of the time you'll start with it in your 7, and by you're sixth draw you'll see it 53% of the time.
- Two copies? You'll start with it 22% of the time, and by your 11th draw, you'll see it 51% of the time.
- And the miser's copy? You'll see it by your 23rd draw half the time. Good luck with that.
Now there are things to be said for tutors and redundancy. Some analysis on mana curve is also probably warranted, so that you can actually cast spells and use your mana. Cascade probably throws things for a loop as well. I think these are the things to think about when you're considering what to take out in a matchup. When considering how to board, I like laying out the deck by mana curve to make sure that I still have a deck, and then thinking about how effective is having 1-2-3-4 copies of a sideboard or main deck card. Sideboarding is super hard for me, so I'm welcome to any other tips.
"My pool was busted... but it actually took a lot of skill to play."
Someone got upset by this comment regarding the last PTQ. I mean, it's a kind of silly comment to make, but it has some merit. When you're deep in a Limited PTQ, you're going to play against really really stupid pools, pools as ridiculous as yours. So what becomes a factor? Being really bad at Magic. Sometimes the power of your pool will get you into the top 8, but it will happen less often if you suck.
Jedi Mind Tricks
I've also heard talk about Jedi Mind Tricks. LSV said it best in one of the clips from Worlds: it's not as valuable as playing correctly. Trying to "bluff" a combat trick when you're thinking ahead to attacks? Not that valuable if you ask me. You know what is valuable? Not giving away anything so he has no clue what you might have.
Looking weak when you've got a blowout trick? Poker Tells 101: if he's acting weak, he's strong; if he's acting strong, he's weak.
You know what's really more valuable than Jedi Mind Tricks? Learning to attack and block correctly. Or planning out your turns and pacing your spells appropriately. Or finding sideboard cards or unconventional plays that will give you an edge against an opponent's deck in Limited.
I certainly do not work on Jedi Mind Tricks at all. I make too many mistakes on the board that I would rather patch those up than make up for them with such a slight edge. I think you should too, you're hardly flawless. Those situations where it was your only out? Don't get in those situations in the first place!
Sideboarding
So I am an atrocious sideboarder in Constructed. Probably because I'm not very good at building my own decks. I mean, I guess I knew how to sideboard my "Bant Plus" deck since that was my baby for two months before the rotation, but any other net deck, I'm hopeless. I can guess what comes in, but can never figure out what comes out.
The problem lies in that you want a fully functional 60 cards for Games 2 and 3 and not just a pile. With aggro decks, if you're not just taking flat out dead cards, you could be messing with the consistency of the deck: less solid starts. This was the problem with sideboarding with Affinity; if you take out too many artifacts, you're not Affinity anymore.
So what's a player to do? I think you have to consider the role of the cards you bring in and leave in.
- If they're good in multiples or you will just dominate the game if this spell is cast, you want 4 in the deck. You'll start with the card in your seven in 40% if your games, 44% after your first draw, 48% after two, 52% after three, 56% after four, and 60% after turn 5.
- What about 3? 31% of the time you'll start with it in your 7, and by you're sixth draw you'll see it 53% of the time.
- Two copies? You'll start with it 22% of the time, and by your 11th draw, you'll see it 51% of the time.
- And the miser's copy? You'll see it by your 23rd draw half the time. Good luck with that.
Now there are things to be said for tutors and redundancy. Some analysis on mana curve is also probably warranted, so that you can actually cast spells and use your mana. Cascade probably throws things for a loop as well. I think these are the things to think about when you're considering what to take out in a matchup. When considering how to board, I like laying out the deck by mana curve to make sure that I still have a deck, and then thinking about how effective is having 1-2-3-4 copies of a sideboard or main deck card. Sideboarding is super hard for me, so I'm welcome to any other tips.
Monday, November 23, 2009
PTQ Portland damage report
I opened a good pool in Portland this weekend, featuring such hits as Ob Nixilis, Marsh Casualties, Vampire Nighthawk, Burst Lightning, Disfigure, Hideous End, and double Quest for the Gravelord.
I think I did my deck justice by going 6-2. I lost round 3 in three games. I remember Game 1 was a blowout, and Game 3 I mulliganed to 5 to his 6 and was never in it.
I was knocked out of contention in round 6. I think Game 2 I was blown out, and in Game 3 I kept a two lander and got stuck on two for a couple turns and by the time I drew lands and cast spells, it was too late.
I managed to win the rest. Granted, my deck was pretty darn powerful, but I didn't feel jittery at all and was able to make pretty sound decisions. In Round 2 Game 2 I made an odd play involving a Crypt Ripper in hand that I thought about for a while where my opponent and a spectator were surprised I didn't haste him in there. I couldn't remember the board after the match, but I remember thinking about it for a while and being pretty sure of my decision.
In Round 4 after my loss, we go to Game 3 and I mulligan to 5, and evil thoughts enter my head about another two-in-a-row for me. I have to keep a hand of Gravelord, Geopede, and maybe three mountains? It was pretty bad and I envisioned myself getting blown out. I play a Mountain, he plays a Guul Draz Vampire and thankfully not a Lacerator. I rip a Swamp and play the Geopede. He plays a Surrakar Maurauders. I rip again and draw a Seismic Shudder, which was the most insane thing I could have drawn there. Gravelord, land, Seismic you to put two counters on Gravelord, swing? Absolutely insane.
So I thought I played one of my best PTQ's yet and still didn't make Top 8. I lost to really good decks and they had better draws than I did. I'd hate to play that card, so to speak, but it's hard for me to think back to any mistakes I made. So I think I'm doing the right things, just have to keep plugging away.
No online PTQ this weekend for me probably, since it's family time and all. I've started looking at possible decks for States. Manuel Bucher's Bant deck has caught my eye in the side-by-side testing I've done so far. Seems good against Jund, hopefully it doesn't blow against everything else in the field.
I think I did my deck justice by going 6-2. I lost round 3 in three games. I remember Game 1 was a blowout, and Game 3 I mulliganed to 5 to his 6 and was never in it.
I was knocked out of contention in round 6. I think Game 2 I was blown out, and in Game 3 I kept a two lander and got stuck on two for a couple turns and by the time I drew lands and cast spells, it was too late.
I managed to win the rest. Granted, my deck was pretty darn powerful, but I didn't feel jittery at all and was able to make pretty sound decisions. In Round 2 Game 2 I made an odd play involving a Crypt Ripper in hand that I thought about for a while where my opponent and a spectator were surprised I didn't haste him in there. I couldn't remember the board after the match, but I remember thinking about it for a while and being pretty sure of my decision.
In Round 4 after my loss, we go to Game 3 and I mulligan to 5, and evil thoughts enter my head about another two-in-a-row for me. I have to keep a hand of Gravelord, Geopede, and maybe three mountains? It was pretty bad and I envisioned myself getting blown out. I play a Mountain, he plays a Guul Draz Vampire and thankfully not a Lacerator. I rip a Swamp and play the Geopede. He plays a Surrakar Maurauders. I rip again and draw a Seismic Shudder, which was the most insane thing I could have drawn there. Gravelord, land, Seismic you to put two counters on Gravelord, swing? Absolutely insane.
So I thought I played one of my best PTQ's yet and still didn't make Top 8. I lost to really good decks and they had better draws than I did. I'd hate to play that card, so to speak, but it's hard for me to think back to any mistakes I made. So I think I'm doing the right things, just have to keep plugging away.
No online PTQ this weekend for me probably, since it's family time and all. I've started looking at possible decks for States. Manuel Bucher's Bant deck has caught my eye in the side-by-side testing I've done so far. Seems good against Jund, hopefully it doesn't blow against everything else in the field.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Drafting with fourouttheforty
So I've been on a pretty hot streak the past week in 8-4's on MODO, with three 3-0's and a 14-4 record in the past seven drafts. I haven't really been trying to force anything, just been trying to play nice with my neighbors and then focusing on my play across the board. I've been trying to do one draft a day, and I've really been working on my concentration: no TV, no web surfing, no music. Who knew when there are no distractions, you play better? If I can keep this kind of focus in Portland this Saturday, I think I've got a shot, because I'm feeling really good about Limited right now.
Here's the last draft I did. I thought my deck was bad at first, but I 3-0'd.
Pack 1 pick 1:
Narrow Escape, Giant Scorpion, Carnage Altar, Paralyzing Grasp, Goblin Shortcutter, Shepherd of the Lost, Swamp, Journey to Nowhere, Emeria, the Sky Ruin, Vines of Vastwood, Ruinous Minotaur, Pillarfield Ox, Turntimber Grove, Gomazoa, Desecrated Earth
My pick:
Shepherd of the Lost - I have no idea if it should have been Journey. This card's pretty darn good though, and I at least think it was between these two.
Pack 1 pick 2:
Hellfire Mongrel, Blood Seeker, Highland Berserker, Hedron Scrabbler, Lethargy Trap, Goblin Bushwhacker, Sejiri Refuge, Oran-Rief, the Vastwood, Swamp, Adventuring Gear, Kabira Crossroads, Giant Scorpion, Reckless Scholar, Savage Silhouette
My pick:
Adventuring Gear - I thought about Hellfire Mongrel, possibly also the Scorpion, but I've been in love with Gear so I went with the non-commitment pick.
Pack 1 pick 3:
Khalni Heart Expedition, Trailblazer's Boots, Magma Rift, Grazing Gladehart, Mire Blight, Zendikar Farguide, Swamp, Piranha Marsh, Shieldmate's Blessing, Murasa Pyromancer, Ravenous Trap, Molten Ravager, Cliff Threader
My pick:
Grazing Gladehart - I thought it's better than the 2/1 Cliff Threader, and Green might be open.
Pack 1 pick 4:
Whiplash Trap, Khalni Gem, Hedron Crab, Tuktuk Grunts, Vastwood Gorger, Spidersilk Net, Highland Berserker, Adventuring Gear, Oran-Rief Recluse, Plains, Nimana Sell-Sword, Electropotence
My pick:
Adventuring Gear - Took another Gear, seemed more powerful than the Highland Berserker, but maybe it could have been Nimana Sell-Sword? That's not a very strong signal in my opinion.
Pack 1 pick 5:
Into the Roil, Makindi Shieldmate, Graypelt Refuge, Quest for Ancient Secrets, Tanglesap, Ruinous Minotaur, Spreading Seas, Pillarfield Ox, Mountain, Stonework Puma, Eternity Vessel
My pick:
Into the Roil - This is a pretty powerful Blue card. It could have been Stonework Puma, since that will almost always make the cut to block Bladetusk Boars.
Pack 1 pick 6:
Guul Draz Vampire, Kor Duelist, Mountain, Piranha Marsh, Sky Ruin Drake, Goblin Shortcutter, Spreading Seas, Summoner's Bane, Cliff Threader, Narrow Escape
My pick:
Sky Ruin Drake - Went with the Blue creature to go with my previous pick. Shipped another Cliff Threader, but I really like Sky Ruin Drake.
Pack 1 pick 7:
Khalni Heart Expedition, Archmage Ascension, Seascape Aerialist, Soul Stair Expedition, Shieldmate's Blessing, Shoal Serpent, Plains, Beast Hunt, Hagra Crocodile
My pick:
Khalni Heart Expedition - Most relevant card in the pack, so it looks like we'll be trying a Blue-Green deck. Maybe we'll get some more fixing at play the Shepherd.
Pack 1 pick 8:
Ior Ruin Expedition, Stonework Puma, Plains, Quest for Pure Flame, Savage Silhouette, Hagra Crocodile, Teetering Peaks, Turntimber Basilisk
My pick:
Turntimber Basilisk - I think it's etter than Puma.
Pack 1 pick 9:
Narrow Escape, Carnage Altar, Swamp, Pillarfield Ox, Turntimber Grove, Gomazoa, Desecrated Earth
My pick:
Gomazoa - It's better than the Ox.
Pack 1 pick 10:
Hedron Scrabbler, Lethargy Trap, Sejiri Refuge, Swamp, Kabira Crossroads, Savage Silhouette
My pick:
Hedron Scrabbler - Most relevant card, and I've been playing it a lot, so it might make the cut.
Pack 1 pick 11:
Trailblazer's Boots, Mire Blight, Swamp, Shieldmate's Blessing, Ravenous Trap
My pick:
Shieldmate's Blessing
Pack 1 pick 12:
Khalni Gem, Hedron Crab, Spidersilk Net, Plains
My pick:
Hedron Crab - Are we going to get to Crab it up?
Pack 1 pick 13:
Quest for Ancient Secrets, Tanglesap, Mountain
My pick:
Quest for Ancient Secrets
Pack 1 pick 14:
Kor Duelist, Mountain
My pick:
Kor Duelist
Pack 1 pick 15:
Beast Hunt
My pick:
Beast Hunt
Pack 2 pick 1:
Scythe Tiger, Trapfinder's Trick, Baloth Woodcrasher, Swamp, Shepherd of the Lost, Timbermaw Larva, Jwar Isle Refuge, Beast Hunt, Paralyzing Grasp, Sadistic Sacrament, Burst Lightning, Explorer's Scope, Vampire's Bite, Disfigure, Kor Outfitter
My pick:
Baloth Woodcrasher - There's another Shepherd, but I went with the Green card that we're probably going to play.
Pack 2 pick 2:
Kabira Crossroads, Reckless Scholar, Hagra Crocodile, Goblin War Paint, Mold Shambler, Teetering Peaks, Brave the Elements, Forest, Vastwood Gorger, Nissa's Chosen, Inferno Trap, Kraken Hatchling, Ondu Cleric, Vampire Nighthawk
My pick:
Nissa's Chosen - Best card on color.
Pack 2 pick 3:
Disfigure, Spire Barrage, Kor Hookmaster, Pillarfield Ox, Paralyzing Grasp, Sejiri Refuge, Island, Timbermaw Larva, Scute Mob, Explorer's Scope, Soaring Seacliff, Vampire Lacerator, Quest for the Gravelord
My pick:
Timbermaw Larva - I guess this could have been Scute Mob, but I'm not sold on it yet. Paralyzing Grasp is also playable, but I think the Larva is more powerful than the Grasp.
Pack 2 pick 4:
Caravan Hurda, Seismic Shudder, Goblin War Paint, Crypt Ripper, Narrow Escape, Kraken Hatchling, Soaring Seacliff, Expedition Map, Quest for the Holy Relic, Caller of Gales, Armament Master, Forest
My pick:
Kraken Hatchling - Only relevant card. This deck might be kind of slow, so these guys might save us from getting blow us out.
Pack 2 pick 5:
Plains, Harrow, Vampire Lacerator, Quest for the Gravelord, Hagra Crocodile, Kazandu Refuge, Mold Shambler, Trapmaker's Snare, Teetering Peaks, Cliff Threader, Kabira Crossroads
My pick:
Harrow - Woo hoo, we really needed this one! Now we can splash for stuff like that first pick Shepherd.
Pack 2 pick 6:
Oran-Rief Recluse, Demolish, Kor Duelist, Noble Vestige, Merfolk Wayfinder, Molten Ravager, Grim Discovery, Cancel, Swamp, Beast Hunt
My pick:
Oran-Rief Recluse - Best on-color card.
Pack 2 pick 7:
Scythe Tiger, Magosi, the Waterveil, Slaughter Cry, Swamp, Tempest Owl, Murasa Pyromancer, Hedron Scrabbler, Zektar Shrine Expedition, Runeflare Trap
My pick:
Hedron Scrabbler - I thought Scythe Tiger was playable at first, but it's not.
Pack 2 pick 8:
Vastwood Gorger, Expedition Map, Surrakar Marauder, Teetering Peaks, Brave the Elements, Forest, Torch Slinger, Hagra Crocodile
My pick:
Vastwood Gorger - That's a late Torch Slinger, but we'll stay on color and play the fat that we could ramp up to.
Pack 2 pick 9:
Scythe Tiger, Trapfinder's Trick, Swamp, Timbermaw Larva, Jwar Isle Refuge, Beast Hunt, Vampire's Bite
My pick:
Timbermaw Larva
Pack 2 pick 10:
Kabira Crossroads, Teetering Peaks, Brave the Elements, Forest, Vastwood Gorger, Kraken Hatchling
My pick:
Kraken Hatchling - I like fat, but I've already got one of these and a Baloth Woodcrashers.
Pack 2 pick 11:
Pillarfield Ox, Sejiri Refuge, Island, Explorer's Scope, Soaring Seacliff
My pick:
Sejiri Refuge - Now we can play our Shepherd.
Pack 2 pick 12:
Narrow Escape, Quest for the Holy Relic, Caller of Gales, Forest
My pick:
Narrow Escape
Pack 2 pick 13:
Plains, Hagra Crocodile, Kazandu Refuge
My pick:
Hagra Crocodile
Pack 2 pick 14:
Merfolk Wayfinder, Beast Hunt
My pick:
Merfolk Wayfinder
Pack 2 pick 15:
Scythe Tiger
My pick:
Scythe Tiger
Pack 3 pick 1:
Demolish, Vampire's Bite, Ior Ruin Expedition, Hellfire Mongrel, Zendikar Farguide, Trailblazer's Boots, Zektar Shrine Expedition, Relic Crush, Cosi's Trickster, Bog Tatters, Plated Geopede, Swamp, Kor Hookmaster, Territorial Baloth, Blazing Torch
My pick:
Blazing Torch - We don't have removal, so I picked this.
Pack 3 pick 2:
Adventuring Gear, Greenweaver Druid, Nimana Sell-Sword, Gomazoa, Sky Ruin Drake, Spreading Seas, Journey to Nowhere, Seismic Shudder, Nissa's Chosen, Vastwood Gorger, Guul Draz Vampire, Seascape Aerialist, Pyromancer Ascension, Forest
My pick:
Journey to Nowhere - Since we have Harrow and Khalni Heart and the UW land in our pool, I can splash this.
Pack 3 pick 3:
Island, Giant Scorpion, Khalni Heart Expedition, Nimbus Wings, Vines of Vastwood, Island (FOIL), Shieldmate's Blessing, Shoal Serpent, Windborne Charge, Quest for the Gemblades, Soul Stair Expedition, Trapfinder's Trick, Feast of Blood
My pick:
Vines of Vastwood - Not sure how good multiple Khalni Hearts are, but I do know that this card is very solid.
Pack 3 pick 4:
Ior Ruin Expedition, Kraken Hatchling, Forest, Makindi Shieldmate, Spire Barrage, Tanglesap, Turntimber Grove, Kabira Evangel, Surrakar Marauder, Seismic Shudder, Harrow, Caravan Hurda
My pick:
Harrow
Pack 3 pick 5:
Joraga Bard, Tempest Owl, Mindless Null, Sky Ruin Drake, Kor Aeronaut, Nimbus Wings (FOIL), Lullmage Mentor, Bold Defense, Frontier Guide, Brave the Elements, Plains
My pick:
Sky Ruin Drake - Thought about Frontier Guide, but I think this is better.
Pack 3 pick 6:
Kor Outfitter, Cancel, Welkin Tern, Oran-Rief, the Vastwood, Bog Tatters, Mountain, Beast Hunt, Windborne Charge, Quest for Pure Flame, Scythe Tiger
My pick:
Welkin Tern - Another two drop.
Pack 3 pick 7:
Kraken Hatchling, Ondu Cleric, Grappling Hook, Unstable Footing, Goblin War Paint, Steppe Lynx, Expedition Map, Caller of Gales, Mountain
My pick:
Kraken Hatchling - Grappling Hook's pretty bad.
Pack 3 pick 8:
Shieldmate's Blessing, Shoal Serpent, Molten Ravager, Grim Discovery, Beast Hunt, Mountain, Celestial Mantle, Bold Defense
My pick:
Bold Defense - Messed this one up, should've been Shoal Serpent.
Pack 3 pick 9:
Vampire's Bite, Ior Ruin Expedition, Zendikar Farguide, Trailblazer's Boots, Relic Crush, Bog Tatters, Swamp
My pick:
Zendikar Farguide -
Pack 3 pick 10:
Greenweaver Druid, Gomazoa, Spreading Seas, Vastwood Gorger, Seascape Aerialist, Forest
My pick:
Greenweaver Druid - Definitely playing this to ramp to our six drops.
Pack 3 pick 11:
Island, Khalni Heart Expedition, Shieldmate's Blessing, Shoal Serpent, Trapfinder's Trick
My pick:
Khalni Heart Expedition - Guess it came back.
Pack 3 pick 12:
Forest, Makindi Shieldmate, Tanglesap, Caravan Hurda
My pick:
Tanglesap
Pack 3 pick 13:
Joraga Bard, Tempest Owl, Plains
My pick:
Joraga Bard
Pack 3 pick 14:
Mountain, Beast Hunt
My pick:
Beast Hunt
Pack 3 pick 15:
Caller of Gales
My pick:
Caller of Gales
Here's my final deck. The two hidden cards are 2 Sky Ruin Drakes. I left the second Khalni Heart Expedition in the side because two really isn't very good.
Blazing Torch also stayed in the side since I had removal with Journey and could stay in the game with Into the Roil, and I didn't really want to cut a creature or any of the other spells. I boarded it in against faster decks and decks with cards I really needed to deal with like Bladetusk Boar.
The other card I brought in a lot was Gomazoa for decks that had creatures I could easily remove, like two decks that had Vampire Nighthawk, and one of those decks having a Halo Hunter. I think I should've started it.
Here's the last draft I did. I thought my deck was bad at first, but I 3-0'd.
Pack 1 pick 1:
Narrow Escape, Giant Scorpion, Carnage Altar, Paralyzing Grasp, Goblin Shortcutter, Shepherd of the Lost, Swamp, Journey to Nowhere, Emeria, the Sky Ruin, Vines of Vastwood, Ruinous Minotaur, Pillarfield Ox, Turntimber Grove, Gomazoa, Desecrated Earth
My pick:
Shepherd of the Lost - I have no idea if it should have been Journey. This card's pretty darn good though, and I at least think it was between these two.
Pack 1 pick 2:
Hellfire Mongrel, Blood Seeker, Highland Berserker, Hedron Scrabbler, Lethargy Trap, Goblin Bushwhacker, Sejiri Refuge, Oran-Rief, the Vastwood, Swamp, Adventuring Gear, Kabira Crossroads, Giant Scorpion, Reckless Scholar, Savage Silhouette
My pick:
Adventuring Gear - I thought about Hellfire Mongrel, possibly also the Scorpion, but I've been in love with Gear so I went with the non-commitment pick.
Pack 1 pick 3:
Khalni Heart Expedition, Trailblazer's Boots, Magma Rift, Grazing Gladehart, Mire Blight, Zendikar Farguide, Swamp, Piranha Marsh, Shieldmate's Blessing, Murasa Pyromancer, Ravenous Trap, Molten Ravager, Cliff Threader
My pick:
Grazing Gladehart - I thought it's better than the 2/1 Cliff Threader, and Green might be open.
Pack 1 pick 4:
Whiplash Trap, Khalni Gem, Hedron Crab, Tuktuk Grunts, Vastwood Gorger, Spidersilk Net, Highland Berserker, Adventuring Gear, Oran-Rief Recluse, Plains, Nimana Sell-Sword, Electropotence
My pick:
Adventuring Gear - Took another Gear, seemed more powerful than the Highland Berserker, but maybe it could have been Nimana Sell-Sword? That's not a very strong signal in my opinion.
Pack 1 pick 5:
Into the Roil, Makindi Shieldmate, Graypelt Refuge, Quest for Ancient Secrets, Tanglesap, Ruinous Minotaur, Spreading Seas, Pillarfield Ox, Mountain, Stonework Puma, Eternity Vessel
My pick:
Into the Roil - This is a pretty powerful Blue card. It could have been Stonework Puma, since that will almost always make the cut to block Bladetusk Boars.
Pack 1 pick 6:
Guul Draz Vampire, Kor Duelist, Mountain, Piranha Marsh, Sky Ruin Drake, Goblin Shortcutter, Spreading Seas, Summoner's Bane, Cliff Threader, Narrow Escape
My pick:
Sky Ruin Drake - Went with the Blue creature to go with my previous pick. Shipped another Cliff Threader, but I really like Sky Ruin Drake.
Pack 1 pick 7:
Khalni Heart Expedition, Archmage Ascension, Seascape Aerialist, Soul Stair Expedition, Shieldmate's Blessing, Shoal Serpent, Plains, Beast Hunt, Hagra Crocodile
My pick:
Khalni Heart Expedition - Most relevant card in the pack, so it looks like we'll be trying a Blue-Green deck. Maybe we'll get some more fixing at play the Shepherd.
Pack 1 pick 8:
Ior Ruin Expedition, Stonework Puma, Plains, Quest for Pure Flame, Savage Silhouette, Hagra Crocodile, Teetering Peaks, Turntimber Basilisk
My pick:
Turntimber Basilisk - I think it's etter than Puma.
Pack 1 pick 9:
Narrow Escape, Carnage Altar, Swamp, Pillarfield Ox, Turntimber Grove, Gomazoa, Desecrated Earth
My pick:
Gomazoa - It's better than the Ox.
Pack 1 pick 10:
Hedron Scrabbler, Lethargy Trap, Sejiri Refuge, Swamp, Kabira Crossroads, Savage Silhouette
My pick:
Hedron Scrabbler - Most relevant card, and I've been playing it a lot, so it might make the cut.
Pack 1 pick 11:
Trailblazer's Boots, Mire Blight, Swamp, Shieldmate's Blessing, Ravenous Trap
My pick:
Shieldmate's Blessing
Pack 1 pick 12:
Khalni Gem, Hedron Crab, Spidersilk Net, Plains
My pick:
Hedron Crab - Are we going to get to Crab it up?
Pack 1 pick 13:
Quest for Ancient Secrets, Tanglesap, Mountain
My pick:
Quest for Ancient Secrets
Pack 1 pick 14:
Kor Duelist, Mountain
My pick:
Kor Duelist
Pack 1 pick 15:
Beast Hunt
My pick:
Beast Hunt
Pack 2 pick 1:
Scythe Tiger, Trapfinder's Trick, Baloth Woodcrasher, Swamp, Shepherd of the Lost, Timbermaw Larva, Jwar Isle Refuge, Beast Hunt, Paralyzing Grasp, Sadistic Sacrament, Burst Lightning, Explorer's Scope, Vampire's Bite, Disfigure, Kor Outfitter
My pick:
Baloth Woodcrasher - There's another Shepherd, but I went with the Green card that we're probably going to play.
Pack 2 pick 2:
Kabira Crossroads, Reckless Scholar, Hagra Crocodile, Goblin War Paint, Mold Shambler, Teetering Peaks, Brave the Elements, Forest, Vastwood Gorger, Nissa's Chosen, Inferno Trap, Kraken Hatchling, Ondu Cleric, Vampire Nighthawk
My pick:
Nissa's Chosen - Best card on color.
Pack 2 pick 3:
Disfigure, Spire Barrage, Kor Hookmaster, Pillarfield Ox, Paralyzing Grasp, Sejiri Refuge, Island, Timbermaw Larva, Scute Mob, Explorer's Scope, Soaring Seacliff, Vampire Lacerator, Quest for the Gravelord
My pick:
Timbermaw Larva - I guess this could have been Scute Mob, but I'm not sold on it yet. Paralyzing Grasp is also playable, but I think the Larva is more powerful than the Grasp.
Pack 2 pick 4:
Caravan Hurda, Seismic Shudder, Goblin War Paint, Crypt Ripper, Narrow Escape, Kraken Hatchling, Soaring Seacliff, Expedition Map, Quest for the Holy Relic, Caller of Gales, Armament Master, Forest
My pick:
Kraken Hatchling - Only relevant card. This deck might be kind of slow, so these guys might save us from getting blow us out.
Pack 2 pick 5:
Plains, Harrow, Vampire Lacerator, Quest for the Gravelord, Hagra Crocodile, Kazandu Refuge, Mold Shambler, Trapmaker's Snare, Teetering Peaks, Cliff Threader, Kabira Crossroads
My pick:
Harrow - Woo hoo, we really needed this one! Now we can splash for stuff like that first pick Shepherd.
Pack 2 pick 6:
Oran-Rief Recluse, Demolish, Kor Duelist, Noble Vestige, Merfolk Wayfinder, Molten Ravager, Grim Discovery, Cancel, Swamp, Beast Hunt
My pick:
Oran-Rief Recluse - Best on-color card.
Pack 2 pick 7:
Scythe Tiger, Magosi, the Waterveil, Slaughter Cry, Swamp, Tempest Owl, Murasa Pyromancer, Hedron Scrabbler, Zektar Shrine Expedition, Runeflare Trap
My pick:
Hedron Scrabbler - I thought Scythe Tiger was playable at first, but it's not.
Pack 2 pick 8:
Vastwood Gorger, Expedition Map, Surrakar Marauder, Teetering Peaks, Brave the Elements, Forest, Torch Slinger, Hagra Crocodile
My pick:
Vastwood Gorger - That's a late Torch Slinger, but we'll stay on color and play the fat that we could ramp up to.
Pack 2 pick 9:
Scythe Tiger, Trapfinder's Trick, Swamp, Timbermaw Larva, Jwar Isle Refuge, Beast Hunt, Vampire's Bite
My pick:
Timbermaw Larva
Pack 2 pick 10:
Kabira Crossroads, Teetering Peaks, Brave the Elements, Forest, Vastwood Gorger, Kraken Hatchling
My pick:
Kraken Hatchling - I like fat, but I've already got one of these and a Baloth Woodcrashers.
Pack 2 pick 11:
Pillarfield Ox, Sejiri Refuge, Island, Explorer's Scope, Soaring Seacliff
My pick:
Sejiri Refuge - Now we can play our Shepherd.
Pack 2 pick 12:
Narrow Escape, Quest for the Holy Relic, Caller of Gales, Forest
My pick:
Narrow Escape
Pack 2 pick 13:
Plains, Hagra Crocodile, Kazandu Refuge
My pick:
Hagra Crocodile
Pack 2 pick 14:
Merfolk Wayfinder, Beast Hunt
My pick:
Merfolk Wayfinder
Pack 2 pick 15:
Scythe Tiger
My pick:
Scythe Tiger
Pack 3 pick 1:
Demolish, Vampire's Bite, Ior Ruin Expedition, Hellfire Mongrel, Zendikar Farguide, Trailblazer's Boots, Zektar Shrine Expedition, Relic Crush, Cosi's Trickster, Bog Tatters, Plated Geopede, Swamp, Kor Hookmaster, Territorial Baloth, Blazing Torch
My pick:
Blazing Torch - We don't have removal, so I picked this.
Pack 3 pick 2:
Adventuring Gear, Greenweaver Druid, Nimana Sell-Sword, Gomazoa, Sky Ruin Drake, Spreading Seas, Journey to Nowhere, Seismic Shudder, Nissa's Chosen, Vastwood Gorger, Guul Draz Vampire, Seascape Aerialist, Pyromancer Ascension, Forest
My pick:
Journey to Nowhere - Since we have Harrow and Khalni Heart and the UW land in our pool, I can splash this.
Pack 3 pick 3:
Island, Giant Scorpion, Khalni Heart Expedition, Nimbus Wings, Vines of Vastwood, Island (FOIL), Shieldmate's Blessing, Shoal Serpent, Windborne Charge, Quest for the Gemblades, Soul Stair Expedition, Trapfinder's Trick, Feast of Blood
My pick:
Vines of Vastwood - Not sure how good multiple Khalni Hearts are, but I do know that this card is very solid.
Pack 3 pick 4:
Ior Ruin Expedition, Kraken Hatchling, Forest, Makindi Shieldmate, Spire Barrage, Tanglesap, Turntimber Grove, Kabira Evangel, Surrakar Marauder, Seismic Shudder, Harrow, Caravan Hurda
My pick:
Harrow
Pack 3 pick 5:
Joraga Bard, Tempest Owl, Mindless Null, Sky Ruin Drake, Kor Aeronaut, Nimbus Wings (FOIL), Lullmage Mentor, Bold Defense, Frontier Guide, Brave the Elements, Plains
My pick:
Sky Ruin Drake - Thought about Frontier Guide, but I think this is better.
Pack 3 pick 6:
Kor Outfitter, Cancel, Welkin Tern, Oran-Rief, the Vastwood, Bog Tatters, Mountain, Beast Hunt, Windborne Charge, Quest for Pure Flame, Scythe Tiger
My pick:
Welkin Tern - Another two drop.
Pack 3 pick 7:
Kraken Hatchling, Ondu Cleric, Grappling Hook, Unstable Footing, Goblin War Paint, Steppe Lynx, Expedition Map, Caller of Gales, Mountain
My pick:
Kraken Hatchling - Grappling Hook's pretty bad.
Pack 3 pick 8:
Shieldmate's Blessing, Shoal Serpent, Molten Ravager, Grim Discovery, Beast Hunt, Mountain, Celestial Mantle, Bold Defense
My pick:
Bold Defense - Messed this one up, should've been Shoal Serpent.
Pack 3 pick 9:
Vampire's Bite, Ior Ruin Expedition, Zendikar Farguide, Trailblazer's Boots, Relic Crush, Bog Tatters, Swamp
My pick:
Zendikar Farguide -
Pack 3 pick 10:
Greenweaver Druid, Gomazoa, Spreading Seas, Vastwood Gorger, Seascape Aerialist, Forest
My pick:
Greenweaver Druid - Definitely playing this to ramp to our six drops.
Pack 3 pick 11:
Island, Khalni Heart Expedition, Shieldmate's Blessing, Shoal Serpent, Trapfinder's Trick
My pick:
Khalni Heart Expedition - Guess it came back.
Pack 3 pick 12:
Forest, Makindi Shieldmate, Tanglesap, Caravan Hurda
My pick:
Tanglesap
Pack 3 pick 13:
Joraga Bard, Tempest Owl, Plains
My pick:
Joraga Bard
Pack 3 pick 14:
Mountain, Beast Hunt
My pick:
Beast Hunt
Pack 3 pick 15:
Caller of Gales
My pick:
Caller of Gales
Here's my final deck. The two hidden cards are 2 Sky Ruin Drakes. I left the second Khalni Heart Expedition in the side because two really isn't very good.
Blazing Torch also stayed in the side since I had removal with Journey and could stay in the game with Into the Roil, and I didn't really want to cut a creature or any of the other spells. I boarded it in against faster decks and decks with cards I really needed to deal with like Bladetusk Boar.
The other card I brought in a lot was Gomazoa for decks that had creatures I could easily remove, like two decks that had Vampire Nighthawk, and one of those decks having a Halo Hunter. I think I should've started it.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
MODO event coverage
Definitely had no idea this existed:
http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Digital/MagicOnline.aspx?x=mtg/digital/magiconline/whatshappening
http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Digital/MagicOnline.aspx?x=mtg/digital/magiconline/whatshappening
Monday, November 9, 2009
Metagame bliss
Interesting theoretical idea... I tried this on paper, but I messed up my algebra :/
Suppose a simple Rock-Paper-Scissors format with three decks (Rock, Paper, and Scissors) defined by W(RP), W(PS), and W(SR) (percentage chance of Rock beating Paper, Paper beating Scissors, and Scissors beating Rock). These are constant.
To keep this simple, define a perfect metagame to be one where each deck in the format has the same expected winning percentage versus the field. (I say keep this simple because we could determine decks likely to win a tournament with Top 8, which isn't as simple as a weighted average, at least with real examples.)
Now, given the definition of the format (win percentage of all three matchups), which metagames (% of the field for each deck) are perfect? What conditions for a format make a perfect metagame impossible? (Intuitively, a deck that doesn't have a weak matchup is one.) For formats that are not strictly Rock-Paper-Scissors, i.e. for each of the three decks in the format, the sum of the win percentages for its other two matchups is 100%, is a perfect metagame possible?
Go.
Suppose a simple Rock-Paper-Scissors format with three decks (Rock, Paper, and Scissors) defined by W(RP), W(PS), and W(SR) (percentage chance of Rock beating Paper, Paper beating Scissors, and Scissors beating Rock). These are constant.
To keep this simple, define a perfect metagame to be one where each deck in the format has the same expected winning percentage versus the field. (I say keep this simple because we could determine decks likely to win a tournament with Top 8, which isn't as simple as a weighted average, at least with real examples.)
Now, given the definition of the format (win percentage of all three matchups), which metagames (% of the field for each deck) are perfect? What conditions for a format make a perfect metagame impossible? (Intuitively, a deck that doesn't have a weak matchup is one.) For formats that are not strictly Rock-Paper-Scissors, i.e. for each of the three decks in the format, the sum of the win percentages for its other two matchups is 100%, is a perfect metagame possible?
Go.
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