Interesting theoretical idea... I tried this on paper, but I messed up my algebra :/
Suppose a simple Rock-Paper-Scissors format with three decks (Rock, Paper, and Scissors) defined by W(RP), W(PS), and W(SR) (percentage chance of Rock beating Paper, Paper beating Scissors, and Scissors beating Rock). These are constant.
To keep this simple, define a perfect metagame to be one where each deck in the format has the same expected winning percentage versus the field. (I say keep this simple because we could determine decks likely to win a tournament with Top 8, which isn't as simple as a weighted average, at least with real examples.)
Now, given the definition of the format (win percentage of all three matchups), which metagames (% of the field for each deck) are perfect? What conditions for a format make a perfect metagame impossible? (Intuitively, a deck that doesn't have a weak matchup is one.) For formats that are not strictly Rock-Paper-Scissors, i.e. for each of the three decks in the format, the sum of the win percentages for its other two matchups is 100%, is a perfect metagame possible?
Go.
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6 comments:
Sorry, couldn't figure out how to edit my previous comment.
*ahem*
Fuck you! You know I hate math!
I'm pretty sure Mike Flores did this ad nauseum for a few months in his articles, talking about how you should play Rock. Except during the times where you play scissors.
I actually extended his argument about a year ago. Have a spreadsheet and paper on my laptop, if you're interested. Basically when you simulate a very long tournament (with infinitely many players) and look at the X-0's, you notice that different decks cycle in and out of dominance. I think this hinges on the RPS format being interesting (i.e. not a bunch of 60-40 matchups), and the speed of which these cycles occur depend on the swinginess of the matchups.
Again, if you're interested, I can ship you what I have.
No doubt. Ship it immediately so I can look at it a month from now. :P
Also, I think you should try to break Desecrated Earth.
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