Cardboard crack goes digital again

For whatever reason, I decided to download MODO again. It wasn't as slow... but I was only drafting and not a full premier event that would ruin my computer's memory.

So the second draft I did tonight was a 4-3-2-2 ALA draft and I make my way to the finals to play against David, who happens to be a Seattle player, a very good one at that. He has drafted an Esper deck, and I am running Grw Naya. Game 1 I blow him out, and Game 2 he blows me out.

Game 3 my first play is a Court Archers and his is a Tidehollow Strix off of a mulligan I believe. We're beating each other, and he misses land and plays out Obelisks, and I eventually put down a Druid of the Anima and a Cavern Thoctar. He plays out another Obelisk, swings, and after my draw, the board looks like this:

Him: 14 life, 4 cards in hand.
His board: 1 tapped Swamp, 2 tapped Island, untapped Obelisk of Bant, Esper, and Grixis. One tapped Tidehollow Trix.

Me: 11 life, Sigil Blessing, Branching Bolt, Welkin Guide, Resounding Roar in hand
Board: all untapped Court Archers, Druid of the Anima, Cavern Thoctar, 2 Mountain, 2 Forest, 1 Plains.

Tricks I've seen are Grixis Charm, Agony Warp, and Resounding Wave. I know he has another Tidehollow Strix in there and a couple of Sanctum Gargoyles.

I already used a Resounding Thunder on his Scavenger Drake. (Possibly should have been Branching Bolt, because I know he's a tight player, saw Branching Bolt from me, and the only ground guy I did see was a Tidehollow Sculler.) If he has nothing in hand, I've got the game with my two pump spells, but that ain't happening. I've seen Resounding Wave earlier in the game, but I don't see a whole lot of point in alpha striking. So what are all the possible courses of action:

I could attack with everyone. Send in for 7. If I pass priority at this point, if he chooses to bounce/kill Thoctar (I guess Bant Charm is a possibility... otherwise there are no cards in the format that kill it), I could use my two pump spells to whack him for 9. Or I could let him bounce it, he takes 2, and I run out Welkin Guide. Next turn I can attack again with a kill possible, but my board is definitely worse.

If he doesn't do anything, he will take at least 7, which is alright. I run out Welkin Guide second main as another guy.

I could play Resounding Roar on my Court Archers before damage. If he plays Agony Warp on what I pump, and I respond with the Sigil Blessing on it, he will take 12 if he targeted Druid with -3/-0, 13 if he -3/-0's the Archers, or 12 if he targets the Thoctar. So he'd go to 2.

If he bounces the Archers I target with the pump, I let him take 6 and play my Court Archers again, saving my Sigil Blessing.

I could also Welkin Guide the Archers. If he deals with the Druid, he takes 6. If he bounces the Thoctar he takes 4 and goes to 10.

I could attack with the Thoctar and something else. If I leave back the Druid, I can follow similar reasoning as above. If I pass and he bounces the Thoctar, I can run my pumps and whack him for 7, or whack him for 1 and run out the Thoctar. I don't think he will deal with the Archers if I don't do anything. If I Resounding Roar the Archers and he does nothing he takes 10, or he Warps it, and I can Sigil Blessing and he takes 10 (don't think it matters who the targets are), and I can make it 11. If he bounces the Thoctar I run it out again.

If I attack with the Druid instead, it's pretty much the same except I cannot add an additional 1, or if he bounces Thoctar I cannot play it.

What I chose to do is attack with just the Thoctar, and it got bounced with Resounding Wave and I replayed it. This analysis took me probably 15 minutes to write up, so I wasn't able to really figure out that attack with everyone, running out a pump on a smaller guy and having him take 8 from my two pumps if he bounces Thoctar or a lot if he kills my pump target seems better.

How the game runs out is he attacks, plays another Strix, which I decide I need to kill. I attack with just the Thoctar again and it gets Resounding Silenced. Plays a Cloudskate Drake, attacks for 2 again putting me at 7, I draw something irrelevant, then he Esper Charms and draws a Sigil of Distinction, I start chumping, and he draws Sharuum and I scoop them up.

I probably really needed to think it out a little bit more, even if it took a few minutes, since it is MODO. Maybe pencil and paper would have helped? Not sure. Good players can run through that fast. I need to learn to do that.