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Magic Online PTQ - 6/17

I went 6-2 in the PTQ this past Thursday evening. Here are the replays:

R1 W vs. Turboland


R2 W vs. Jund


R3 W vs. Mythic


R4 W vs. UB Hedron Crab/Vengevine


R5 L vs. Jund


R6 L vs. Boros Bushwacker


R7 W vs. Next Level Bant


R8 W vs. Turboland

My Jund list

And if your curious what I'm running:

4 Putrid Leech
4 Lotus Cobra
4 Sprouting Thrinax
2 Borderland Ranger
4 Bloodbraid Elf
4 Vengevine
2 Siege-Gang Commander

4 Maelstrom Pulse
4 Bituminous Blast
2 Eldrazi Monument

4 Savage Lands
4 Raging Ravine
4 Dragonskull Summit
4 Verdant Catacombs
1 Scalding Tarn
1 Terramorphic Expanse
3 Forest
3 Swamp
2 Mountain

Sideboard:
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Doom Blade
4 Blightning
3 Royal Assassin

Things I'm consdering:
* I'm bringing Blightning in a lot, but I cut different things for it. Against Blue control decks, it's Thrinax, in the mirror it's Maelstrom Pulse, and I certainly don't really want it main deck against dedicated Vengevine decks.
* Royal Assassin may not be correct against Mythic, they may become some other removal spell. It's also kind of difficult to cast.
* Lightning Bolt is for Mythic, but it's not Forked Bolt because I'd rather have Bolt against Red Deck Wins, which is very much a deck online.
* Eldrazi Monument > Sarkhan the Mad in a fight, and it isn't even close. I could see running both, but definitely not the planeswalker over the artifact.

Summary of Standard season

My Standard PTQ season has been extremely mediocre after Extended season:

Portland: 5-3, knocked out in 4th round of 8
Indy Regionals: 3-2 drop (8 rounds)
Seattle: 3-2 drop (8 rounds)
MODO PTQ 6/6: 4-4, knocked out in 6th round of 8
SCG 5K Seattle: 5-3 drop, knocked out of T8 in 7th round of 9, knocked out of money in 8th

All of these I played Jund, and for monetary reasons, I'd probably continue playing Jund. Plus I think the deck's still the most powerful deck in the format. And I'm more or less +EV in 2-man queues with the deck. Since putting the deck together, my online rating has gone from 1590 to swinging between 1650 and 1730, mostly in the 1690-1700 range. I guess at the height of my Magical powers, I was 1750-1800 in Limited, but still not even close to infinite, but I don't know what the gamut of ratings in Constructed is.

Anyway, I'm very comfortable with Jund and think I can keep tuning it to the metagame and put up good numbers and keep getting better with the deck. I'm not convinced it's super draw/cascade dependent because I know I'm playing very loosely. Will continue on with the PTQ schedule, and should probably get my Limited chops going too: I've drafted maybe 5 times since Standard season started, and all of the drafts have gone terribly!

This summer is the summer I actively get better at Magic, because although I think people regard me as a decent/not bad player, I'm really tired of losing to good players late in tournaments and would like to put up some damn finishes!

Online PTQs

The eternal quest for a balance between Magic and social life has likely axed another PTQ from my schedule, so I think I'm going to commit to investing more in MODO cards and play in online PTQ's. Here are the ones I think I can do:

Sunday, 6/6/10   7AM PDT
Sunday, 6/13/10   3AM PDT
Thursday, 6/17/10   6PM PDT
Sunday, 6/20/10   3AM PST
Thursday, 7/8/10   6PM PDT
Sunday, 7/11/10   7AM PDT
Sunday, 7/18/10   7AM PDT
Sunday, 7/25/10   11AM PDT

Seriously, I'm going to do every single one of these.

End of the season, and start of Standard

Extended is over, and I'm pretty sad to see it go. I 6-2'd the last PTQ with Faeries Thopter again, a deck which I've never had as much success as I have this season:

R1 W vs. Dark Depths
R2 W vs. Bant Foundry
R3 W vs. Dredge
R4 L vs. Jon Zoo (Scapeshift Zoo)
R5 W vs. Dredge
R6 W vs. Bant Foundry
R7 L vs. Dark Depths
R8 W vs. Blood Moon Zoo

I made a pretty subtle judgment error against Jon in Game 3 because, knowing that he had Scapeshift in hand, I auto-piloted and presumed that Scapeshift would take away all my life points. However, since he has Mountains in play, he doesn't have enough left in his deck to go for the full amount. The board is me with the Thopter Combo online at about 22 and five mana up, and him with lots of lands, a Knight of the Reliquary and a Scapeshift. He casts Scapeshift, and I tap 3 for Thirst for Knowledge because I think I'm just dead. I don't find Muddle the Mixture, and he sacs 4 lands to do 12 to me. He then plays a Sejiri Steppe to give Knight of the Reliquary pro Thopter Combo and attacks. I can gain 2 life, but I still end up about 1 short. What should have happened is me not tapping 3 for Thirst so I have more life to gain and I don't die. I'm bad.

So this is what my PTQ Puerto Rico season looked like:

EXTENDED Record Deck knocked out?
PTQ Seattle I 2-2 UG Scapeshift R4/8
GP Oakland 3-3-1 Bant Charm Zoo R5/9
PTQ Oakland 5-3 Bant Charm Zoo R7/8
PTQ Vancouver 4-3 Thopter Faeries R5/7
PTQ Boise 5-2 Thopter Faeries R6/7
PTQ Seattle II 6-2 Thopter Faeries R7/8
SEASON TOTAL 25-15-1 (61.79%)

I bested my win rate from last PTQ season, so this was my best PTQ season to date, but no blue envelope and no Top 8 pins yet. I think the deck mattered tons; it was a mix of raw power with it's sick T1 starts of Bob and Bitterblossom, and surprise with the Thopter Foundry combo jammed in there.

My rating is currently 1921, possibly 10-15 points higher if I can successfully hound a tournament organizer to submit a 16K sealed at a convention that I 5-0'd. This month I have two PTQ's, but I cannot attend Regionals and the cut off is the beginning of June. I have to get to about 2020 to qualify for Nats by then, and I'm thinking about booking a ticket and going right now even if I don't qualify. If I don't grind in there, I will have at least another PTQ to grind to add to the paltry three I'm currently slated for.

So I have the lofty goal of qualifying for Regionals off of rating this coming month. I think I'm going to book a ticket for Minneapolis to commit myself to it. If I don't make it, I will go to grind in. That next month will be a Star City 5K and another PTQ, then nothing for the rest of the season until Nationals in August and Grand Prix Portland in September.

I think I'm insane. I asked a couple friends who are in the GP/Magic jet set if I was insane. Response?

Yes (see: anyone who plays magic)

PTQ Boise

I went to Boise this weekend for a PTQ and played Thopter Faeries again. The only change I really made was make an Island an Academy Ruins, which was never relevant, and make the Negate in the sideboard a third Damnation to shore up the Zoo matchup.

I went 5-2. I lost in Round 6 playing for the top 8, which makes me 0-5 lifetime in such situations.

More relevantly, in Round 1 I'm playing the stone mirror. I win Game 1, and Game 2 I keep a hand with Bitterblossom, Spell Snare and mana and nearly instantly keep. He plays a land and announces Thoughtseize. I think about what he's going to take, and of course it's the Leyline of the Void in my hand.

Huh?

Yup, that just happened. I was so tunnel visioned on seeing a Bitterblossom and Bitterblossom counters (which I thought would matter in the matchup) that I totally forgot to play Leyline when the game started! Of course, that game, he puts together the combo and wins. He wins Game 3 after that too.

I made excuses like that it was the first time I've ever had Leyline of the Void in my opening hand in a match. I don't know if it was my focus at the table or what that made me not think to start with that on the table, but whatever it is, it's probably the reason I'm 0-5 in getting into top 8's.

The rest of the day on my scorepad, in addition to writing "BPV" at the top of the page (ironic because PV doesn't do things like miss Leylines), but under it "SLOW DOWN". I went 5-1* after that abortion of an opening round.

You can console me all you want, but the player I want to be doesn't make mistakes like that.

Anyway, I'm behind the deck more and more now. I really think it beats everything in the format that isn't Zoo. You also have the rogue advantage of people not knowing your deck from the cards you play, tricking people into thinking you're straight up Faeries and then getting off the combo. I'm so behind the deck that I'm considering buying a ticket to Houston for the Grand Prix in two weeks.

* My results if you care:
R1 L Thopter Faeries
R2 W Brozek Deck Wins
R3 W Bant
R4 W Thopter Ironworks
R5 W Bant Charm Zoo
R6 L UW Thopter Control
R7 W Mono Red Burn

PTQ Vancouver

So I went 4-3 in Vancouver with Matej Zatlkaj's Faeries Thopter deck. I should have probably been 5-2 if I weren't bad at Magic and possibly Top 8 if I had also gotten a little more fortunate in one match, but mostly because I'm retarded.

Anyway, I don't know what to play in Boise in two weeks. I'm expecting a similar metagame to Vancouver: very spread out ,so I'd like to play deck with power. Decks on the radar:

- Faeries Thopter, so long as I don't see a Zoo deck or Night of Souls' Betrayal, I think this deck beats everything else in the format.
- Zoo, also good against most of the format, but I don't have a clue in the mirror, for some reason. 0-2 in Oakland in the mirror, which seems to depend very heavily on deck construction since the game play seems straight forward.
- Into the Depths (GB Depths with Rite of Consumption) - I dismissed this because someone who played it said it wasn't good against random decks in the format, but it is pretty good against Zoo and Thopter Depths.
- Grixis Haterator - I'm willing to give the deck a try after seeing Gavin X-2 with it.
- Loucks Zoo - This deck looks like a great upgrade to Zoo.
- Bant - Also seems like a good alternative to Zoo.

Oakland... and mental blocks

Oakland was a really fun weekend, hanging out with the Northwest guys I know, old East Coast friends, and making some new ones (at the expense of losing the credit card game mostly).

I ended up playing Zoo. I got a list from Dan Hanson in the middle of the week, started trying it out against some common matchups, and did some tweaking. Dan gave a suggestion on the mana base to help out with Bant Charm, but it ended up not being very good and I got that message from him that it would suck when I arrived back in Seattle on Monday. Oops.

So here's the list I played on Sunday in the PTQ (not certain about the fetches off the top of my head):

Bant Charm Zoo

4 Arid Mesa
2 Scalding Tarn
4 Marsh Flats
2 Stomping Ground
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Temple Garden
1 Blood Crypt
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Breeding Pool
1 Forest
1 Plains

4 Wild Nacatl
4 Kird Ape
4 Loam Lion
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Qasali Pridemage
4 Knight of the Reliquary

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Tribal Flames
4 Path to Exile
4 Bant Charm
1 Umezawa's Jitte

Sideboard:
1 Umezawa's Jitte
4 Meddling Mage
3 Damping Matrix
3 Ranger of Eos
2 Extirpate
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Bojuka Bog

Meddling Mage was serviceable, but it may be 4 Thoughtseizes instead, they were pretty bad against Scapeshift.

Anyway, the Grand Prix went pretty badly and isn't really worth talking, except for maybe the guy first round who was very rude to me after we drew and I wouldn't scoop a position he had stabilized. Who scoops Round 1?

The PTQ started out much better, though. Here's a small report.

Round 1 - Faeries (W) He presents 61 cards and when I ask him, he looks through his board and he says I should call a judge. Turns out he put 5x of a card in his deck while building and got a Game Loss. I appreciated him being honest, since I probably wouldn't have asked for a deck check if he had told me it was legit.

Round 2 - Teachings (W) I play against Seattle ringer Martin Goldman-Kirst and blow him out in two.

Round 3 - Boros (W) Kasey Koerber, another local Seattle guy, picked up the deck of the tournament. I knew this before hand but forgot and put him on Teachings and toss back the nuts against him (2 Lightning Bolts and a Path). I beat him in three. I don't think I'd play this deck unless it's a very small tournament that is extremely disconnected from the Internet.

Round 4 - Dark Depths (W) This wasn't a very pleasurable match, as he complained about every answer I had. At the end of the match, his wife came over and he started getting snippy with her. I decided to desideboard somewhere else before things got more awkward.

Round 5 - Dark Depths (W) This game went to three, and in Game 3 he mulliganed to a one-lander.

Round 6 - Scapeshift (L) This is for Top 8, and I lose in three. In Game 2 when he went off, I thought might have played land #6, Searched for tomorrowed, then played a Valakut for whatever reason, and Scapeshifted. I ask him to hold while I try to figure out what the first land he played was, and he got a little agitated in Korean which I didn't appreciate. The only way this is shady is if he has Valakut #2 in hand, but I ask him to flash his hand and he doesn't have it, so I just concede. I'm upset that I couldn't remember the game state well enough and had to put him through that.

Round 7 - Zoo (L) In with a win again. Game 1 I get burned out. I think I could have put him to two the turn before he plays two burn spells since that required him playing a Red dual land untapped, but I'm not sure. Game 2 I have to mulligan and draw zero Knights of the Reliquary to his two. Things get bad when he draws Jitte, and I have to quadruple block to kill one of his Knights and Bant Charm the other, leaving me with a Kird Ape (which should have been dead but he chose not to pump his Knight with the other as much as possible). The board is now him with a Jitte with counters and no cards in hand, and me with a Kird Ape and no cards in hand. I'm at about 9 and he's at 18, but at that point I couldn't ask for a better board. I really want to draw a Knight or my last Ranger of Eos or a Tarmogoyf or a Jitte, but my deck gives me lands and a couple of chump blockers once he draws a guy and Jitte's it up.

Round 8 - (Scoop) The top four tables draw, but I get paired up against Gabe Carleton-Barnes, a former Portland ringer transplanted to the Northeast. I scoop him in after seeing the four draws and there being zero chance of me getting lucky. It's like letting someone on the road change lanes ahead of you; you do it because you'd like someone to do that for you in the other situation.

This season makes one Grand Prix, and two PTQ's. My record is now 10-8-1 (10-7-1 if you don't count concessions.) That PTQ also makes me 0-4 in matches where a win puts me in Top 8. I don't know if this is because of skill level or I'm playing worse in the moment. I know against Scapeshift I kept a pretty bad hand Game 2, and by bad I mean awful: 2 Meddling Mages, 1 Qasali Pridemage, Forest, Hallowed Fountain, and some other card. I thought I could cast Meddling Mage, but I'm actually just retarded. And I already talked about my possible mistake in Game 1 against Zoo.

The fact is that in four shots at top 8, I haven't gotten there once. Hell, I'm measuring myself by shots at top 8 and not even pins. I think I just need an IV of ice water with me to calm me down, even though this time I didn't feel nervous, but maybe a little less risk-averse than usual.

I may play this list next weekend, but it depends on how much of a deck Elves will be. If not, I've got a great Faeries list I can get my hands on that would be excellent for such a metagame.

Ruthlessness

I was bored on the plane Sunday night, my iPod was dead, and I didn't really feel like reading the book I had brought, so I scribbled at the top of a piece of paper "Fearless Magical Inventory 2010".

One of the things I wrote was that I'm not ruthless enough anymore, if I ever was. I don't find it pleasurable when players pout and complain about losing matches, so it almost gives me an excuse to not win. I feel like I should look forward to such situations, if my goal is to win.

It became very apparent last night in the finals of a draft at First Pick. My opponent was at three with a Sea Gate Loremaster active with another Ally. I ship the turn, and he draws a card, and then realizes his mistake and asks to activate Sea Gate Loremaster. I didn't really care, so I let him. He draws utter gas off of it and I get blown out from there.

Obviously I was upset, and I justified it to myself by thinking that I don't really care about getting more Magic packs, and that the stakes weren't that high. I was about to blow up when he wouldn't shut up about how nice I was, when in fact you probably shouldn't even ask for takebacks in the first place, but I just kept my mouth shut. I got over throwing temper tantrums when I was about 13.

Anyway, that incident is an absolute wake up call for me as a Magic player. I like the game, but I like it more when I am winning. I stay with the game because I still think I can win more often than I currently am, and being a nice guy to worse players won't help me win more.

I'll try to flesh out Fearless Magical Inventory 2010 more. It's definitely harder to come up with things, but I know for a fact that I'm hitting a wall.

Preparation, or lack thereof

I have two weeks until Grand Prix Oakland, and I've been playing very little actual Extended matches. I haven't even been doing side-by-side testing, because of a lack of faith in it. When you can't figure out how Dark Depths beats Scapeshift when it's supposed to be a very good matchup according to people who actually play Magic, or similarly when you think Faeries can beat Burn, your methods may be flawed.

Also consider that there are a MILLION viable decks, unlike Standard where Jund was the big bogeyman and I was basically trying three or four decks to see if they beat Jund. I've come to the conclusion that if I pick out a top tier deck and come armed with a solid sideboard, I can do fine as long as I like my deck.

Add to the fact that Worldwake may not have added many cards to the format, except maybe the new Wasteland which only really nerfs Scapeshift, and I can just use the current metagame to figure out what the most powerful decks are.

I'm proxying four or five decks I could conceivably play:
- Steppe Lynx Zoo
- Faeries
- Aggro-Scapeshift
- Thopter Depths
- Red Burn

I'm bringing them with me to the prerelease this Saturday pretty early and battling anyone who will battle me. In fact, I'll probably be going to a lot of events just with these decks battling anyone who will battle me. I'm not interested in collecting data, but instead just finding a deck I "like", and figuring out how matchups go. I think all these decks are the most powerful decks in the format, it will just be a matter of getting comfortable with them and knowing the interactions.

I'll probably end up purchasing the cards for ALL of these decks and bringing them to Oakland and then making a metagame decision and adjusting my sideboard accordingly. Maybe in the meantime I will stumble upon a brew I like that has good matchups against most decks in the format and that people won't have a clue about, ala my Naya deck last May for the Grand Prix. (I went 16-5 with that deck that weekend. One poor match away from top 8'ing the PTQ!)

I've said it many times, but Constructed is hard...

Tracking and evaluating your performance, or lamenting over bad results

A couple times today I started to write depressing pieces about how awful I am at Magic and how frustrating Constructed is. (For your information, I went 2-2 in the PTQ and 1-3 in the subsequent GPT with Scapeshift. My commentary will only be speculative, ask someone who actually did well.) I asked myself the question "Am I actually doing well in PTQs", and decided to track my performance.

I accumulated the records in all of the PTQs and Grand Prixs that I have participated in. That would be 23 PTQs and 5 GP's. Here are my results:

PTQ Yokohama (T1.x) - 1 PTQ, 3-3-1
PTQ Valencia (TSP Block Constructed) - 2 PTQs, 1-6
2007 Total - 4-9-1

PTQ Hollywood (T1.x) - 3 PTQs and 1 GP, 17-13
PTQ Kyoto (Shards Limited) - 4 PTQs and 1 GP, 14-20
2008 Total - 7 PTQs and 2 GPs, 31-33

PTQ Honolulu (T1.x) - 5 PTQs and 1 GP, 10-12-5
PTQ Austin (T2) - 3 PTQs and 1 GP, 16-13
Grand Prix Boston (M10 Limited) - 11-4
PTQ San Diego (Zendikar Limited) - 4 PTQs, 15-10-1
2009 Total - 12 PTQs and 3 GPs, 52-41-6

Unlike the Magic meme that went around a while back, I didn't put down what Top 8's I've had or anything like that because I don't have any. If out of dumb luck I were to Top 8 a major event and they asked me my major finishes, I'd write down "I've won FNMs" and that wouldn't be facetious in any sense.

I crunched the numbers for 2009 to look for any indication if I were "due" for a PTQ Top 8. Under the very strong assumption that a 52% win percentage is valid for every round of the PTQ, and that to Top 8 a PTQ you must win the first 6 out of 8 rounds (and ID twice) or otherwise win 7 of 8, I'd top 8 a PTQ 4.9% of the time, or once every 20 PTQs. Crunching these numbers further, the probability of not making a single Top 8 in the 12 PTQs in which I participated in 2009 is 54%. (For fun, the probability under such assumptions that I could win a given PTQ is 0.7%.)

The conclusion? Yes, I am getting better. I have played in more PTQs and Grand Prixes, and I have won more every year. I am still a mile away from Top 8'ing a PTQ. I think people (at least ones I'd consider friends) think I'm a competent Magic player, but would you have considered the Seattle Mariners a competent baseball team this past season?

Another alarming conclusion is that in 2009 my record is better in Limited than in Constructed. Maybe it's because I can afford to draft for fun on paper and online because of getting to collect/sell paper cards and because I'm close to breaking even drafting online. I guess I really need to re-evaluate my Constructed preparation.

My next major tournament, besides any GPT's that pop up in the area, will be Grand Prix Oakland in six weeks. I'm not sure if it will be more beneficial to take a break from Extended and Magic for a while or if eating and breathing more Extended will help me get there. The last two Constructed events I had the benefit of Thanksgiving and Christmas vacations on the East Coast to spend sitting on my computer bashing decks together on my computer. Without those now, do I start my preparation now, or figure out how to work smarter and not harder?

Quick hits

I've been out of the country for a family issue, but I have had my laptop and been able to do a little bit of testing. Here's what I know so far:

Tezzeret is really freaking hard to play! For a million dollars, if I had to correctly cast Gifts Ungiven, I wouldn't be able to do it. Heck, for $100 if I had to split Gifts Ungiven correctly, I wouldn't be able to do it. Trinket Mage and the Transmute cards are also really hard to play because you can get so many things, and depending your list, if you misuse one of your tutor targets, you're screwed for the game. My plan is to proxy the deck up and just goldfish it tons to see what the plays are, without the pressure of real game situations.

Other than that, it seems like Rubin Zoo is the deck to beat, and I'm leaning toward something that outraces it. Probably not Steppe Lynx Zoo since that version of Zoo actually makes Punishing Fire pretty good, but more like the bogeyman from two years ago: Dredge. Tuning that deck will come to guessing how much hate people will be packing in their maindeck and adjusting the Dredge maindeck appropriately. For example, I think I want Darkblast to have some kind of answer to Gaddock Teeg. If I think people will be packing Ravenous Traps and Leylines, however, maybe I'd be better off playing Rubin Zoo or Tezzeret.

I also haven't touched sideboards yet. It seems that you can tune your sideboard to beat any deck in the format. Again, comes down to guessing what the metagame will be and what other adjustments decks will be making between now and the first PTQ (which happens to be Seattle this season!)

Still plugging along...

Let's talk about Extended and Testing

I went 5-3 at States with Bram Snepvanger's Boros list. I was happy with the deck excpet that I'd probably make the Burst Lightnings into Earthquakes, which may necessitate swapping Teetering Peaks for Terramorphic Expanse to make my dudes more likely to live through it, but I like Kor Skyfisher too much to take it out for something else in that case.

One thing I'd like to do more of at the beginning of the season for Extended is side-by-side testing to play both sides of the matchup. It was great for learning the format because instead of trying out one deck for yourself at a time, you're trying out two. It's also important to know how the other deck plays to read into your opponent's plays. A valuable piece of advice I read back in the day on, believe or not, Team Academy was about how the writer (probably Andystok) couldn't beat a certain deck, so he switched to that deck and bashed it tons. Then he couldn't beat a deck that beat that deck, so he bashed that tons. But, then couldn't beat his original deck, so he switched, but now he could beat the deck he originally couldn't beat since he knew how it played and what it cared about.

Switching decks in playtesting is also a good idea for learning the format. It also takes the playskill skew out of the picture if you really want to learn what the matchup is actually like. But the common playtest partner will probably be reluctant to switch since he'd rather get as many games in with his deck than a deck he isn't going to play. With side-by-side testing, there is no skew. Even though you've seen the other hand, it makes you ask the question if playing/not playing into something is worth it.

I could also go as slow or as fast as I wanted when figuring out lines and plays, and I could learn about the matchups I cared about, rather than whatever the person at the store with a deck was battling. A lot of times I'd make a play from the other side of the Boros deck, and then switch windows to my Boros hand and blow him out the next turn, so I'd back up and make a tighter play and see if would change the outcome of the game.

Other logistical considerations for side-by-side testing is that coordinating games and playtest sessions is a pain when you or your playtest partners have real life to juggle, the awkwardness of discussing over MWS, and the time it takes to proxy up paper decks for live testing. I think I'd consider traditional live testing more of practice and side-by-side testing true testing and experimentation and discovery. I'm going to have a lot of time this week to bash the Extended decks from Worlds against each other, so I'll probably be keeping tabs here about what I learn.

For those interested, my gauntlet is Tezzeret, Rubin Zoo, Dredge, Hypergenesis, and All-In Red, as these were the decks that put multiple people into 5-1 at Worlds. With the exception of All-In Red, off the top of my head, I think these also all had representatives in the 6-0 bracket. The other decks I'll try but not necessarily consider part of the litmus test for other decks are Bant, Scapeshift, Dark Depths, UB Faeries, UW Control, and Mono-Red Burn.

Fear of Constructed

When I sit down for most Constructed tournaments, I have a fear that I don't have in Limited tournaments.

Bad matchups scare the crap out of me. When your opponent can play his first land and you know you've only got a 40% chance of winning this game, that scares the crap out of me.

When your opponent can play a card that just ruins your entire plan like Kataki, that scares me.

When your opponent draws more relevant cards in a mirror match than you and you just lose, that scares me.

I've never had the same confidence in Constructed as Limited. In Limited, your decks are much more even, and you can plan for bombs, and you can attack and block, and you'll hardly ever be surprised by card choices. In Constructed, so much work happens before you sit down and draw any cards.

Tomorrow I'm playing Boros Bushwhacker at State Championships. I think I'm even to a slight favorite against Jund since you can blow them out and their mana can be really awkward, even though I am declining on Goblin Ruinblasters since I don't think deck can reliably get to four mana on turn 4 (the only turn where it's really good). The deck's also really good against GW strategies that try to beat Jund since you're just faster and they rely on Noble Hierarchs which you can burn. I really don't see an edge in the Jund matchup, and I've been playing that online since it came out. I like Boros because it can feel like a combo deck like UR Dragonstorm back from Standard. I've played a lot of games in side-by-side testing with it, so we'll see how it goes tomorrow.

I think afterwards I'll evaluate my preparation for this tournament and figure out what needs to change for Extended season. As of right now, I really prefer side-by-side testing to random playtesting since you can be much more methodical with what matchups you want to test and what data you want to collect, rather than being at the mercy of the person in your group you're playing against getting bored with a deck or wanting to battle the deck he's already decided on. I also like being able to backup and revisit different lines of play that you don't understand without bogging down a playtest partner.

Bobbie McRae

I grew up in Raleigh, NC, and my weekends in high school usually included time at All Fun 'n Games in Apex, NC. Now, I sucked. I couldn't draft for the life of me, played loose as hell, and only came out ahead in Constructed because I was playing better decks than half the room since I used the Internet.

A fixture there was Bobbie McRae, one of the two women who ran the store. I went off to college a million miles away, but on my breaks home would find time to make a visit and draft, and Bobbie would always be excited to see an old familiar face.

I hadn't been to the store for probably the past year since my trips home had been much more serious with the health and the passing of my father, but I recently got a message from an old Magic baller friend from this time period about playing Two-Headed Giant this weekend at AFNG. (The last time he played was four years ago when I was home, he hadn't played for a year, and he asked me to play 2HG with him at the store also! How can I say no to an old friend?)

I went to the site for info about the tournament, and to my shock, the front page had a blurb that Bobbie had passed away this year to a long fight with cancer. I knew she had been sick, but she always seemed so cheerful when she was at the store that you wouldn't believe that she was undergoing treatment if you didn't hear it from someone.

I'm upset that the last time I saw her was probably over a year ago, but if she were still around, I'd thank Bobbie for being a part of my Magic experience and my growing up, and hope that she and those by whom she is survived are proud of her work sharing gaming with a lot of people.

My Grand Prix Wish List

I guess it's almost Christmas time, so here's my Grand Prix wish list for 2010. The entire 2010 schedule is here. These are the one's I'm probably making plans for:

Feb. 13-14 Oakland, CA, T1.x
April 3-4 Houston, TX, T1.x
June 12-13 Manila, Philippines, T2
Sept. 11-12 Portland, OR, M2010 Limited
Oct. 23-24 Toronto, ON, "Lights" Limited

The North American Grand Prixs are pending the location not being somewhere awful, like GP Tampa or GP Atlanta. Oakland's close, and Houston and Toronto should be pretty awesome places to visit... right?

Random thoughts

Skill with a stupid pool

"My pool was busted... but it actually took a lot of skill to play."

Someone got upset by this comment regarding the last PTQ. I mean, it's a kind of silly comment to make, but it has some merit. When you're deep in a Limited PTQ, you're going to play against really really stupid pools, pools as ridiculous as yours. So what becomes a factor? Being really bad at Magic. Sometimes the power of your pool will get you into the top 8, but it will happen less often if you suck.

Jedi Mind Tricks

I've also heard talk about Jedi Mind Tricks. LSV said it best in one of the clips from Worlds: it's not as valuable as playing correctly. Trying to "bluff" a combat trick when you're thinking ahead to attacks? Not that valuable if you ask me. You know what is valuable? Not giving away anything so he has no clue what you might have.

Looking weak when you've got a blowout trick? Poker Tells 101: if he's acting weak, he's strong; if he's acting strong, he's weak.

You know what's really more valuable than Jedi Mind Tricks? Learning to attack and block correctly. Or planning out your turns and pacing your spells appropriately. Or finding sideboard cards or unconventional plays that will give you an edge against an opponent's deck in Limited.

I certainly do not work on Jedi Mind Tricks at all. I make too many mistakes on the board that I would rather patch those up than make up for them with such a slight edge. I think you should too, you're hardly flawless. Those situations where it was your only out? Don't get in those situations in the first place!

Sideboarding

So I am an atrocious sideboarder in Constructed. Probably because I'm not very good at building my own decks. I mean, I guess I knew how to sideboard my "Bant Plus" deck since that was my baby for two months before the rotation, but any other net deck, I'm hopeless. I can guess what comes in, but can never figure out what comes out.

The problem lies in that you want a fully functional 60 cards for Games 2 and 3 and not just a pile. With aggro decks, if you're not just taking flat out dead cards, you could be messing with the consistency of the deck: less solid starts. This was the problem with sideboarding with Affinity; if you take out too many artifacts, you're not Affinity anymore.

So what's a player to do? I think you have to consider the role of the cards you bring in and leave in.

- If they're good in multiples or you will just dominate the game if this spell is cast, you want 4 in the deck. You'll start with the card in your seven in 40% if your games, 44% after your first draw, 48% after two, 52% after three, 56% after four, and 60% after turn 5.

- What about 3? 31% of the time you'll start with it in your 7, and by you're sixth draw you'll see it 53% of the time.

- Two copies? You'll start with it 22% of the time, and by your 11th draw, you'll see it 51% of the time.

- And the miser's copy? You'll see it by your 23rd draw half the time. Good luck with that.

Now there are things to be said for tutors and redundancy. Some analysis on mana curve is also probably warranted, so that you can actually cast spells and use your mana. Cascade probably throws things for a loop as well. I think these are the things to think about when you're considering what to take out in a matchup. When considering how to board, I like laying out the deck by mana curve to make sure that I still have a deck, and then thinking about how effective is having 1-2-3-4 copies of a sideboard or main deck card. Sideboarding is super hard for me, so I'm welcome to any other tips.

PTQ Portland damage report

I opened a good pool in Portland this weekend, featuring such hits as Ob Nixilis, Marsh Casualties, Vampire Nighthawk, Burst Lightning, Disfigure, Hideous End, and double Quest for the Gravelord.

I think I did my deck justice by going 6-2. I lost round 3 in three games. I remember Game 1 was a blowout, and Game 3 I mulliganed to 5 to his 6 and was never in it.

I was knocked out of contention in round 6. I think Game 2 I was blown out, and in Game 3 I kept a two lander and got stuck on two for a couple turns and by the time I drew lands and cast spells, it was too late.

I managed to win the rest. Granted, my deck was pretty darn powerful, but I didn't feel jittery at all and was able to make pretty sound decisions. In Round 2 Game 2 I made an odd play involving a Crypt Ripper in hand that I thought about for a while where my opponent and a spectator were surprised I didn't haste him in there. I couldn't remember the board after the match, but I remember thinking about it for a while and being pretty sure of my decision.

In Round 4 after my loss, we go to Game 3 and I mulligan to 5, and evil thoughts enter my head about another two-in-a-row for me. I have to keep a hand of Gravelord, Geopede, and maybe three mountains? It was pretty bad and I envisioned myself getting blown out. I play a Mountain, he plays a Guul Draz Vampire and thankfully not a Lacerator. I rip a Swamp and play the Geopede. He plays a Surrakar Maurauders. I rip again and draw a Seismic Shudder, which was the most insane thing I could have drawn there. Gravelord, land, Seismic you to put two counters on Gravelord, swing? Absolutely insane.

So I thought I played one of my best PTQ's yet and still didn't make Top 8. I lost to really good decks and they had better draws than I did. I'd hate to play that card, so to speak, but it's hard for me to think back to any mistakes I made. So I think I'm doing the right things, just have to keep plugging away.

No online PTQ this weekend for me probably, since it's family time and all. I've started looking at possible decks for States. Manuel Bucher's Bant deck has caught my eye in the side-by-side testing I've done so far. Seems good against Jund, hopefully it doesn't blow against everything else in the field.

Drafting with fourouttheforty

So I've been on a pretty hot streak the past week in 8-4's on MODO, with three 3-0's and a 14-4 record in the past seven drafts. I haven't really been trying to force anything, just been trying to play nice with my neighbors and then focusing on my play across the board. I've been trying to do one draft a day, and I've really been working on my concentration: no TV, no web surfing, no music. Who knew when there are no distractions, you play better? If I can keep this kind of focus in Portland this Saturday, I think I've got a shot, because I'm feeling really good about Limited right now.

Here's the last draft I did. I thought my deck was bad at first, but I 3-0'd.

Pack 1 pick 1:
Narrow Escape, Giant Scorpion, Carnage Altar, Paralyzing Grasp, Goblin Shortcutter, Shepherd of the Lost, Swamp, Journey to Nowhere, Emeria, the Sky Ruin, Vines of Vastwood, Ruinous Minotaur, Pillarfield Ox, Turntimber Grove, Gomazoa, Desecrated Earth

My pick:
Shepherd of the Lost - I have no idea if it should have been Journey. This card's pretty darn good though, and I at least think it was between these two.

Pack 1 pick 2:
Hellfire Mongrel, Blood Seeker, Highland Berserker, Hedron Scrabbler, Lethargy Trap, Goblin Bushwhacker, Sejiri Refuge, Oran-Rief, the Vastwood, Swamp, Adventuring Gear, Kabira Crossroads, Giant Scorpion, Reckless Scholar, Savage Silhouette

My pick:
Adventuring Gear - I thought about Hellfire Mongrel, possibly also the Scorpion, but I've been in love with Gear so I went with the non-commitment pick.

Pack 1 pick 3:
Khalni Heart Expedition, Trailblazer's Boots, Magma Rift, Grazing Gladehart, Mire Blight, Zendikar Farguide, Swamp, Piranha Marsh, Shieldmate's Blessing, Murasa Pyromancer, Ravenous Trap, Molten Ravager, Cliff Threader

My pick:
Grazing Gladehart - I thought it's better than the 2/1 Cliff Threader, and Green might be open.

Pack 1 pick 4:
Whiplash Trap, Khalni Gem, Hedron Crab, Tuktuk Grunts, Vastwood Gorger, Spidersilk Net, Highland Berserker, Adventuring Gear, Oran-Rief Recluse, Plains, Nimana Sell-Sword, Electropotence

My pick:
Adventuring Gear - Took another Gear, seemed more powerful than the Highland Berserker, but maybe it could have been Nimana Sell-Sword? That's not a very strong signal in my opinion.

Pack 1 pick 5:
Into the Roil, Makindi Shieldmate, Graypelt Refuge, Quest for Ancient Secrets, Tanglesap, Ruinous Minotaur, Spreading Seas, Pillarfield Ox, Mountain, Stonework Puma, Eternity Vessel

My pick:
Into the Roil - This is a pretty powerful Blue card. It could have been Stonework Puma, since that will almost always make the cut to block Bladetusk Boars.

Pack 1 pick 6:
Guul Draz Vampire, Kor Duelist, Mountain, Piranha Marsh, Sky Ruin Drake, Goblin Shortcutter, Spreading Seas, Summoner's Bane, Cliff Threader, Narrow Escape

My pick:
Sky Ruin Drake - Went with the Blue creature to go with my previous pick. Shipped another Cliff Threader, but I really like Sky Ruin Drake.

Pack 1 pick 7:
Khalni Heart Expedition, Archmage Ascension, Seascape Aerialist, Soul Stair Expedition, Shieldmate's Blessing, Shoal Serpent, Plains, Beast Hunt, Hagra Crocodile

My pick:
Khalni Heart Expedition - Most relevant card in the pack, so it looks like we'll be trying a Blue-Green deck. Maybe we'll get some more fixing at play the Shepherd.

Pack 1 pick 8:
Ior Ruin Expedition, Stonework Puma, Plains, Quest for Pure Flame, Savage Silhouette, Hagra Crocodile, Teetering Peaks, Turntimber Basilisk

My pick:
Turntimber Basilisk - I think it's etter than Puma.

Pack 1 pick 9:
Narrow Escape, Carnage Altar, Swamp, Pillarfield Ox, Turntimber Grove, Gomazoa, Desecrated Earth

My pick:
Gomazoa - It's better than the Ox.

Pack 1 pick 10:
Hedron Scrabbler, Lethargy Trap, Sejiri Refuge, Swamp, Kabira Crossroads, Savage Silhouette

My pick:
Hedron Scrabbler - Most relevant card, and I've been playing it a lot, so it might make the cut.

Pack 1 pick 11:
Trailblazer's Boots, Mire Blight, Swamp, Shieldmate's Blessing, Ravenous Trap

My pick:
Shieldmate's Blessing

Pack 1 pick 12:
Khalni Gem, Hedron Crab, Spidersilk Net, Plains

My pick:
Hedron Crab - Are we going to get to Crab it up?

Pack 1 pick 13:
Quest for Ancient Secrets, Tanglesap, Mountain

My pick:
Quest for Ancient Secrets

Pack 1 pick 14:
Kor Duelist, Mountain

My pick:
Kor Duelist

Pack 1 pick 15:
Beast Hunt

My pick:
Beast Hunt

Pack 2 pick 1:
Scythe Tiger, Trapfinder's Trick, Baloth Woodcrasher, Swamp, Shepherd of the Lost, Timbermaw Larva, Jwar Isle Refuge, Beast Hunt, Paralyzing Grasp, Sadistic Sacrament, Burst Lightning, Explorer's Scope, Vampire's Bite, Disfigure, Kor Outfitter

My pick:
Baloth Woodcrasher - There's another Shepherd, but I went with the Green card that we're probably going to play.

Pack 2 pick 2:
Kabira Crossroads, Reckless Scholar, Hagra Crocodile, Goblin War Paint, Mold Shambler, Teetering Peaks, Brave the Elements, Forest, Vastwood Gorger, Nissa's Chosen, Inferno Trap, Kraken Hatchling, Ondu Cleric, Vampire Nighthawk

My pick:
Nissa's Chosen - Best card on color.

Pack 2 pick 3:
Disfigure, Spire Barrage, Kor Hookmaster, Pillarfield Ox, Paralyzing Grasp, Sejiri Refuge, Island, Timbermaw Larva, Scute Mob, Explorer's Scope, Soaring Seacliff, Vampire Lacerator, Quest for the Gravelord

My pick:
Timbermaw Larva - I guess this could have been Scute Mob, but I'm not sold on it yet. Paralyzing Grasp is also playable, but I think the Larva is more powerful than the Grasp.

Pack 2 pick 4:
Caravan Hurda, Seismic Shudder, Goblin War Paint, Crypt Ripper, Narrow Escape, Kraken Hatchling, Soaring Seacliff, Expedition Map, Quest for the Holy Relic, Caller of Gales, Armament Master, Forest

My pick:
Kraken Hatchling - Only relevant card. This deck might be kind of slow, so these guys might save us from getting blow us out.

Pack 2 pick 5:
Plains, Harrow, Vampire Lacerator, Quest for the Gravelord, Hagra Crocodile, Kazandu Refuge, Mold Shambler, Trapmaker's Snare, Teetering Peaks, Cliff Threader, Kabira Crossroads

My pick:
Harrow - Woo hoo, we really needed this one! Now we can splash for stuff like that first pick Shepherd.

Pack 2 pick 6:
Oran-Rief Recluse, Demolish, Kor Duelist, Noble Vestige, Merfolk Wayfinder, Molten Ravager, Grim Discovery, Cancel, Swamp, Beast Hunt

My pick:
Oran-Rief Recluse - Best on-color card.

Pack 2 pick 7:
Scythe Tiger, Magosi, the Waterveil, Slaughter Cry, Swamp, Tempest Owl, Murasa Pyromancer, Hedron Scrabbler, Zektar Shrine Expedition, Runeflare Trap

My pick:
Hedron Scrabbler - I thought Scythe Tiger was playable at first, but it's not.

Pack 2 pick 8:
Vastwood Gorger, Expedition Map, Surrakar Marauder, Teetering Peaks, Brave the Elements, Forest, Torch Slinger, Hagra Crocodile

My pick:
Vastwood Gorger - That's a late Torch Slinger, but we'll stay on color and play the fat that we could ramp up to.

Pack 2 pick 9:
Scythe Tiger, Trapfinder's Trick, Swamp, Timbermaw Larva, Jwar Isle Refuge, Beast Hunt, Vampire's Bite

My pick:
Timbermaw Larva

Pack 2 pick 10:
Kabira Crossroads, Teetering Peaks, Brave the Elements, Forest, Vastwood Gorger, Kraken Hatchling

My pick:
Kraken Hatchling - I like fat, but I've already got one of these and a Baloth Woodcrashers.

Pack 2 pick 11:
Pillarfield Ox, Sejiri Refuge, Island, Explorer's Scope, Soaring Seacliff

My pick:
Sejiri Refuge - Now we can play our Shepherd.

Pack 2 pick 12:
Narrow Escape, Quest for the Holy Relic, Caller of Gales, Forest

My pick:
Narrow Escape

Pack 2 pick 13:
Plains, Hagra Crocodile, Kazandu Refuge

My pick:
Hagra Crocodile

Pack 2 pick 14:
Merfolk Wayfinder, Beast Hunt

My pick:
Merfolk Wayfinder

Pack 2 pick 15:
Scythe Tiger

My pick:
Scythe Tiger

Pack 3 pick 1:
Demolish, Vampire's Bite, Ior Ruin Expedition, Hellfire Mongrel, Zendikar Farguide, Trailblazer's Boots, Zektar Shrine Expedition, Relic Crush, Cosi's Trickster, Bog Tatters, Plated Geopede, Swamp, Kor Hookmaster, Territorial Baloth, Blazing Torch

My pick:
Blazing Torch - We don't have removal, so I picked this.

Pack 3 pick 2:
Adventuring Gear, Greenweaver Druid, Nimana Sell-Sword, Gomazoa, Sky Ruin Drake, Spreading Seas, Journey to Nowhere, Seismic Shudder, Nissa's Chosen, Vastwood Gorger, Guul Draz Vampire, Seascape Aerialist, Pyromancer Ascension, Forest

My pick:
Journey to Nowhere - Since we have Harrow and Khalni Heart and the UW land in our pool, I can splash this.

Pack 3 pick 3:
Island, Giant Scorpion, Khalni Heart Expedition, Nimbus Wings, Vines of Vastwood, Island (FOIL), Shieldmate's Blessing, Shoal Serpent, Windborne Charge, Quest for the Gemblades, Soul Stair Expedition, Trapfinder's Trick, Feast of Blood

My pick:
Vines of Vastwood - Not sure how good multiple Khalni Hearts are, but I do know that this card is very solid.

Pack 3 pick 4:
Ior Ruin Expedition, Kraken Hatchling, Forest, Makindi Shieldmate, Spire Barrage, Tanglesap, Turntimber Grove, Kabira Evangel, Surrakar Marauder, Seismic Shudder, Harrow, Caravan Hurda

My pick:
Harrow

Pack 3 pick 5:
Joraga Bard, Tempest Owl, Mindless Null, Sky Ruin Drake, Kor Aeronaut, Nimbus Wings (FOIL), Lullmage Mentor, Bold Defense, Frontier Guide, Brave the Elements, Plains

My pick:
Sky Ruin Drake - Thought about Frontier Guide, but I think this is better.

Pack 3 pick 6:
Kor Outfitter, Cancel, Welkin Tern, Oran-Rief, the Vastwood, Bog Tatters, Mountain, Beast Hunt, Windborne Charge, Quest for Pure Flame, Scythe Tiger

My pick:
Welkin Tern - Another two drop.

Pack 3 pick 7:
Kraken Hatchling, Ondu Cleric, Grappling Hook, Unstable Footing, Goblin War Paint, Steppe Lynx, Expedition Map, Caller of Gales, Mountain

My pick:
Kraken Hatchling - Grappling Hook's pretty bad.

Pack 3 pick 8:
Shieldmate's Blessing, Shoal Serpent, Molten Ravager, Grim Discovery, Beast Hunt, Mountain, Celestial Mantle, Bold Defense

My pick:
Bold Defense - Messed this one up, should've been Shoal Serpent.

Pack 3 pick 9:
Vampire's Bite, Ior Ruin Expedition, Zendikar Farguide, Trailblazer's Boots, Relic Crush, Bog Tatters, Swamp

My pick:
Zendikar Farguide -

Pack 3 pick 10:
Greenweaver Druid, Gomazoa, Spreading Seas, Vastwood Gorger, Seascape Aerialist, Forest

My pick:
Greenweaver Druid - Definitely playing this to ramp to our six drops.

Pack 3 pick 11:
Island, Khalni Heart Expedition, Shieldmate's Blessing, Shoal Serpent, Trapfinder's Trick

My pick:
Khalni Heart Expedition - Guess it came back.

Pack 3 pick 12:
Forest, Makindi Shieldmate, Tanglesap, Caravan Hurda

My pick:
Tanglesap

Pack 3 pick 13:
Joraga Bard, Tempest Owl, Plains

My pick:
Joraga Bard

Pack 3 pick 14:
Mountain, Beast Hunt

My pick:
Beast Hunt

Pack 3 pick 15:
Caller of Gales

My pick:
Caller of Gales

Here's my final deck. The two hidden cards are 2 Sky Ruin Drakes. I left the second Khalni Heart Expedition in the side because two really isn't very good.

Blazing Torch also stayed in the side since I had removal with Journey and could stay in the game with Into the Roil, and I didn't really want to cut a creature or any of the other spells. I boarded it in against faster decks and decks with cards I really needed to deal with like Bladetusk Boar.

The other card I brought in a lot was Gomazoa for decks that had creatures I could easily remove, like two decks that had Vampire Nighthawk, and one of those decks having a Halo Hunter. I think I should've started it.